WASHINGTON – The departure of Donald Trump has brought a more normal rhythm to politics in Washington, but outside the Beltway, deeper forces are forming the partisan landscape.
Data from the NBC News poll shows that the electorate consisting of the two major parties is changing and that there is a massive shift in employment: the kind of work that Democrats and Republicans do. There are signs that Republicans in racial and ethnic demographic groups are becoming the party of blue-collar Americans and that change is taking place rapidly.
If the movement continues, it could have a huge impact on the future of the IDP. Consider the extent of the change as a whole.
In the last decade, the percentage of voters who call themselves Republicans has grown by 12 points. At the same time, the number in the group identifying Democrats decreased by 8 points. Among white-collar voters, numbers remained stable, with the increase of Democrats and Republicans a slight decline.
But the move of the blue collar is remarkable because of the policy implications it could have for the two parties. Voters with a blue collar tend to want other things from the government than those with white collars on issues like trade and even Wall Street regulation.
We have already seen some signs of what this change could mean just after the election when Republican voters in line with former President Trump called for greater COVID relief from the government. Larger cash payouts are not a policy choice one would normally associate with Republicans.
In this way, the blue-collar shift for the IDP can reform the party, especially when you look at how far-reaching it is.
You can see it among white, non-Hispanic voters who make up the vast majority of Republicans.
Among voters, the numbers reflect the large-scale shift – a 12-point gain for the IDP.
But the blue-collar outbreak is also spreading in other Republican constituencies, including groups that are often more difficult for the GOP. Spanish blue-collar voters have been flocking to the Republican Party for the past ten years.
That 13-point gain is impressive, even greater than the growth the Republicans had with blue-collar whites, and it can certainly be seen as a bright spot for the party as he tries to find a way to keep the fast-growing to achieve ethnic position. group. For years, the assumption was that the Democrats had an inside track to win the Spanish vote, but perhaps that is less true than was believed, especially among the Spanish Spanish.
And you can even see the growth of Republicans’ blue collar among African Americans, a demographic voter who has long had deep problems for the IDP.
To be clear, the numbers are still very small. But in light of the battle the Republicans have chosen, even a little positive movement is something for the party to welcome. Ultimately, the election is about margins and the loss of a group by 7 points less can pay dividends in countries where the votes are close.
Taken together, these data points indicate that GOP has not only made significant inputs with blue-collar voters, but the party is increasingly dependent on blue-collar voters as an important, if not the key, part of its coalition.
Political strategists often debate the best way to win over voters: Are cultural or economic calls better? These data suggest that economic appeals may provide the Republican Party with the best way to broaden its appeal. However, this path is likely to mean a redesign of policy-making approaches to make it sound better to blue-collar voters.
And another point as the Republicans’ intra-party war deepens: If these numbers are seen, most of the GOP’s blue-collar growth took place during the presidency of Donald Trump. If that’s the way Republicans choose to move forward, it could mean the party is tied even closer to the former president.