The date was September 26, 1983. A lieutenant colonel in the Soviet air defense forces sat at his command station in Serpukhov-15 while sirens sounded, indicating that nuclear missiles had been launched from the United States. As you may have guessed from the fact that you read it in 2021, no missiles were fired during the Cold War during that Cold War. Stanislav Petrov, who acknowledged this, made the statement that the reports were a false alarm, which prevented an overall nuclear war between the two world powers. Today we are going to look at what caused the false alarm and why Petrov could correctly suspect that what he saw was an illusion.
Infrared Missile Detection
Petrov was responsible for monitoring the Oko early warning satellite network, which consisted of a series of satellites in highly elliptical Molniya orbits. This orbit was cleverly chosen by Soviet scientists to give the Oko satellites a grazing view of the continental United States, which at the time was the biggest threat of intercontinental ballistic missile attack (ICBM). By looking over the Earth with their infrared sensors, rather than looking down on it, the infrared energy of the hot rocket outlet can be easily seen against the cold background of space, rather than the earth’s surface. The aim was to reduce the false positive aspects of phenomena such as wildfires and oil wells, and also to provide good coverage without the need for a large number of satellites.
However, on that fateful night in September, the unique orbit of the Soviet satellite would cause a major problem. The Oko system sounded the alarm shortly after midnight, indicating that a single missile had been launched from the United States. As the sirens went on around him, Petrov almost froze. The political climate at the time was fraught, with overall nuclear war a constant threat.
The siren cries, but I just sit there for a few seconds and stare at the large, illuminated, red screen with the word ‘launch’ on it.
The initial alarm was followed by further warnings, displaying a total of five missiles. Despite indications that hell was about to break loose, Petrov did not immediately pass on the warning.
Is this thing broken?
With only a few minutes to respond to a strike, time was of the essence, but things did not add up. Starting a nuclear war with just five missiles, Petrov did not have a credible strategy, and satellite radar operators could not report the launch of any launches. The Oko satellites have so far been new and relatively untested. So instead of reporting that a nuclear attack on the USSR was underway, Petrov chose to go with his sentiment and report that the system was not functioning.
Twenty-three minutes later I realize that nothing has happened. If there had been a real strike, I would have known. It was such a relief.
Petrov’s gut feeling seemed to be on the money, and the war dogs were kept on the leash that night. It was indeed a false alarm, rather than US missiles, that caused the warning. The date of the incident was right around the autumn equinox. Due to the location of the sun and some clouds at high altitude, sunlight reflected on the satellite’s infrared sensors, causing the satellite to report several rocket launches. The incident led to the Soviet Union establishing an additional geostationary satellite system to confirm any indications of missile launches from the US.
Stanislav Petrov was never rewarded or especially admonished for his decision. Eventually he was degraded in a technical way because he did not fill out his diary while having to deal with the painful decision of whether to burn the earth in that cold September night in nuclear fire. He lived the rest of his life in Russia and died in 2017 at the age of 77.
Disaster was thus averted by Petrov’s actions; in the then-hair-triggering military environment, it is likely that USSR officials warned that incoming U.S. missiles were likely to be ordered to launch, causing untold devastation. Instead, we sit down with a wonderful story and an even more gripping lesson. Redundancy is always important in systems that deal with matters of life or death, and it is even more polite to ensure that when mentioned lives millions or billions can be measured. That, and that you sometimes have to stray on the side of the warning, especially if there is a nuclear war.