Sen. Alessandra Biaggi or another legislator
Why they can win: Democrats have an extremely deep bank in the state legislature. Dozens of their 150 members are more viable than statesman George Pataki, who was 20 months before the 1994 election when he beat Mario Cuomo, and it is certainly possible that an unexpected member of the country will launch a serious campaign.
The two legislators most mentioned are Biaggi and Senator Jessica Ramos. Both are part of the young first-year class that helped their party take a majority in their chamber in 2018. And both would have a good chance of winning the support of the party’s Ocasio-Cortez wing. Biaggi has already acted as a primary candidate and has spent the past few weeks at the forefront of opposition to the Cuomo government.
One game card: Andrea Stewart-Cousins, leader of the majority of the Senate, the highest legislator in the Senate. No one would have a better chance of clearing the room with a campaign statement than Stewart-Cousins, whose term of office was received under the auspices of the historic factional Democratic conference with great criticism from moderates and socialists.
Why they can not win: Pataki was able to win by the then Sen. Al D’Amato’s nationwide campaign apparatus. There are a number of groups with a rural presence with which candidates such as Biaggi or Ramos can be an ally, especially the Working Families Party. But the biggest success in recent years has been in legislative or congressional campaigns, and they have yet to prove that they can be the deciding factor in a nationwide race.
Candidates can, of course, build their own networks. But especially for those who have minimal name recognition outside of a district that represents less than 2 percent of the state, this is the kind of organization they will have to start soon.
As for Stewart-Cousins, the biggest obstacle in her way is that she never gave the slightest hint that she was interested in the entire office.
Mayor of Ithaca, Svante Myrick
Why he can win: Myrick may be in a unique position. At the age of 33, he was already the focus of numerous exuberant national profiles on topics such as his recent efforts to implement the most comprehensive police reforms in the country, and he would have just as much chance as anyone around the newly-able young to win left.
Unlike other thriving candidates who are equally well-positioned, his tenure as mayor of an upstate city – albeit a small and atypical one – would be less likely to lay an egg north of Yonkers.
Why he can not win: While he may be able to avoid the attacks that he is a “New York City socialist,” he is still very much left. Democrats may have moved in that direction over the past few years, but there is still not much evidence that positions such as defending the police and establishing heroin injection sites will win voters in Hempstead.