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USA TODAY
The claim: Diesel prices have risen from $ 1.69 to $ 3.19 since Biden took office, and the president is to blame
A new party in the White House means it’s time for an American tradition – the blame game. Anything wrong in the world is now the fault of the two-month administration. Or the guilt of the previous government, depending on your political beliefs.
With gas prices going up, this exercise is fully on social media. This includes a widespread Facebook post on March 10th.
“When Sleepy Joe in Diesel was $ 1.69,” it reads. ‘Today, Diesel is $ 3.19. Thanks to everyone who voted for this clown. ”
This poster is wrong in the details and the guilt. Here’s why.
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Wrong numbers
The price of diesel is indeed higher. The national average of $ 3.07 on March 15 was the highest since June 2019.
But the numbers in the message are far from the point.
The national average price for diesel was $ 2.64 per liter on Jan. 20 when Democrat President Joe Biden took the oath of office, according to GasBuddy.com. That’s almost a dollar higher than the post claims. Meanwhile, the national average on March 10 was $ 3.04, less than the post claimed.
So there was an increase, but a lot smaller.
Weekly price data from the US Energy Information Administration shows a similar movement, from $ 2.70 to $ 3.14, based on the weeks closest to the time.
The poster did not respond to a message from USA TODAY asking for evidence of his claim. He lives according to his profile in Iowa, but using local numbers does not help his case much. GasBuddy shows that prices in Des Moines rose by $ 2.45 to $ 3 per liter, a slightly larger jump, but still far from the demand of the post.
Biden is not guilty of nails
The message, like many others, pointing a finger at Biden about the prices on the pump, is also wrong about the fundamental blame element. The price movement we are now seeing on diesel and gas is not related to Biden’s policy changes, experts say.
To begin with, the trend is before Biden. The price of diesel has risen steadily since early November, when Republican President Donald Trump was in office.
And Biden’s policies have no immediate impact. Biden has closed the planned expansion of the Keystone XL pipeline, which would run from Canada to Nebraska. Experts consulted by PolitiFact said the decision to make oil transport less efficient in the long run, but even then they doubted it would directly affect US costs. Reuters reports that existing pipelines and ongoing expansions are expected to be sufficient for the flow between the U.S. and Canada, which supplies about half of America’s imported oil.
The president also imposed a 60-day ban on new hydraulic fracturing permits, but that does not affect existing operations. In any case, oil producers are unlikely to pursue new jobs as they scramble to bring back online production that was scaled back in 2020, experts say.
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In fact, the price of diesel and gas – like many things in 2021 – is about the pandemic.
The reduction in economic activity, and people moving and moving less, reduced the demand for diesel and gas in 2020, causing a related decline in oil production amid the strong financial losses in the oil industry. The Energy Information Administration, an independent government agency analyzing policymakers and the public, said demand for diesel fell by 8% in 2020, while demand for gas fell by 13%.
Demand is now rising rapidly as the COVID-19 picture improves and the economy bounces back, but it takes time to get supply back to normal. The Energy Information Administration says crude oil production in the U.S. has declined in 2020 and will decline again in 2021 “due to a decline in drilling activities associated with low oil prices.” It plans to increase in 2022.
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“We are heading for a higher (price) territory until the market sees more crude oil, whether it is supplied by US or Canadian interests or OPEC,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.com. said. “We have a fairly large imbalance. Demand has screamed louder, and production is moving against a turtle, and part of that is because the depth of the crisis has been so severe for oil companies. ”
Energy and security analyst Patricia Schouker described the same dynamics to AFP, a global news agency in France, saying that demand recovery and limited production had pushed “crude prices to their highest level since the onset of the coronavirus” pandemic. “
In addition to market-changing events such as the pandemic, the prices of both fuels are mainly driven by the cost of crude oil, which in turn is driven by a variety of global economic conditions that affect supply and demand.
As Schouker noted, presidents have ‘very little direct influence’ on the price of gas and diesel.
De Haan said the irony of blaming Biden is that the growing demand is related to the growing economy. The people who tend to wrongly blame Biden for gas prices will therefore also give him sluggish for the economy, even though they are two sides of the same coin.
Our verdict: False
We consider this claim to be FALSE because it is not supported by our research. The numbers are not nearly right – the actual increase was more than 40 cents, not $ 1.50. And the debt element is equally beyond the base. The price of diesel (and gas) is rising due to the swelling demand as movement and economic activity increase amid the recovery of the coronavirus. According to experts, it could take until 2022 before oil production returns to pre-pandemic levels, which in the meantime will cause a shortage that will cause prices to rise.
Our sources for fact checking
- Facebook post, March 10
- The US Energy Information Administration, January 25, expects the EIA to increase petrol and diesel prices as the US economy recovers
- US Energy Information Administration, January 14, will reduce US oil and natural gas production in 2021 and then increase in 2022
- US Energy Information Administration, explains diesel fuel, undated
- US Energy Information Administration, which drives crude oil prices undated
- US Energy Information Administration, March 16, Diesel Price History
- PolitiFact, February 15, likely not to boost Keystone XL oil price hike
- PolitiFact, 2 March, gas prices rise? And is it Joe Biden’s fault?
- Reuters, January 22, even without Keystone XL, sets U.S. record of Canadian oil imports
- AFP, 11 February. Gas prices rise on renewed demand for crude oil, not US policy
- GasBuddy.com, Fuel Price Trends, Visits March 15
- Interview with Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis for GasBuddy.com, March 15
Contact Eric Litke at (414) 225-5061 or [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @ericlitke.