But how much should we worry, since so many have already been vaccinated in this condition or are about to be eligible? The truth is that it’s hard to tell, not even for experts.
The best we can do now is assess the data we have about the variants. Here’s a quick look at some of what we know.
—-
Let us first look at the number of cases of coronavirus in which the variants have been found in Massachusetts so far. The CDC and the state say 977 cases of the British variant, 82 cases of the Brazilian variant and 12 cases of the South African variant have been found. The numbers have been rising since the state’s first case, a British variant, was announced on 17 January.
The British variant totals are the fourth highest in the United States, while the Brazilian variance numbers are the second highest.
Here is a country-by-country map of the State Department of Public Health from where the cases were found.
An important caveat: these data do not represent the actual number of variant cases. The genomic sequence required to search for variants is done only on a limited number of tests. The numbers are based on a sample of SARS-CoV-2 positive samples and do not represent the total number of cases that may be in circulation, the CDC said.
—-
Let’s look at the number of different variants in the state. Data from CDC indicate that as of mid-March, the UK variant accounts for almost a fifth of cases in the state, while two other official variants, the B.1.427 and B.1.429, or California variants, are second most common.
The data from a limited number of tests again have a reservation. The CDC notes: “The number of variants does not represent the total number that may be in circulation.”
—-
Data from a very different source provides another warning sign that variations are lurking in Massachusetts. The Massachusetts Water Resources Authority has found the British variant in the wastewater at the Deer Island treatment plant.
Biobot Analytics of Cambridge, the company that does the testing for the MWRA, says the tests have always been able to pick up coronaviruses, regardless of the variant. But recently the company announced that it has the ability to differentiate specifically when sampling the British variant. The days on which the variant was detected are shown in green in the graph.
The focus on the British variant is understandable, given the dominance among the variants. According to the most recent estimates, it is also about 60 percent more contagious and 67 percent more deadly than the original form of the coronavirus.
–
At the national level, the CDC also reports the number of variant cases per state, broken down by the three best-known variants.
The same reservations about limited tests apply.
–
Using data obtained from genomic succession tests, scientists from the Scripps Research Institute calculated a national estimate of the ratio of coronavirus cases caused by varieties of interest and variants of interest, a less worrying category.
This graph indicates that varieties of concern were involved in approximately one-third of all current cases of coronavirus nationwide.
—-
The CDC’s efforts to detect the spread of coronavirus variants came under fire early this year. But they have improved significantly over the past few weeks and are expected to continue to improve, mainly due to the $ 1.75 billion funds for genomic sequencing in the stimulus package.
However, the testing of the variants needs to be more systematic, extended and more nuanced, said dr. Thomas Tsai, an assistant professor at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, said.
However, the general picture that emerges is clear. The British, South African and Brazilian variants are gaining ground in the United States, emphasizing that people must continue to take precautions to prevent the spread.
‘The top message is pretty consistent. There is an increasing prevalence of the variants of concern. “And it’s arguing for continued vigilance over the next few weeks, even if the vaccine explodes ahead of schedule,” Tsai said. “We have come a long way, but we are still not out of the woods.”
Amanda Kaufman of the Globe staff contributed to this report. Materials from Globe Wire Services were used in this report.
Martin Finucane can be reached at [email protected]. Vince can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @vince_dixon_.