As the explosion of vaccines rises – or in some cases stumbles forward – in countries around the world, the SARS-CoV-2 strain has rolled out some new features of its own, mainly in the form of rapid genetic mutations. Some evidence suggests that variants of recent months have made the virus more contagious, or in one case may have been more deadly.
Virus variants are unavoidable and often benign. The new coronavirus probably mutated countless times without attracting the attention of epidemiologists. But new strains identified in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Brazil and California have left contagious disease experts waiting.
Several studies indicate that the strain known as the B117 variant, which occurs in the United Kingdom, can be as much as 70 per cent more transmissible than the original virus. Two analyzes in California suggested that a new strain on the West Coast, called B.1.426, accounts for a quarter of the infections they investigated. As the news swings between infection spikes and vaccination attempts, it may seem like the world has entered a race between variant and vaccine.
“The change by mutation is fairly rapid,” said Dr. Irwin Redlener, pediatrician and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s disaster preparedness adviser. “We do not know where it is going. It is the reality that we do not know what to expect. The thing we are more concerned about is that it can mutate to become resistant to the vaccines or partially resistant to the vaccines. That would be terrible. We can modify the vaccine, but it will delay everything. ”
In general, the arrival of new, threatening strains should not change the average person’s behavior, three epidemiologists and public health advisers told the Daily Beast. “In terms of vaccines and mitigation, it does not change the mitigation strategies, because we know that mitigation works,” said Dr. Arnold Monto, epidemiologist at the University of Michigan and professor of public health said. “But that just means we need to be all the more serious about following these kinds of rules.”
“I think it mainly reinforces the urgency of every aspect of the pandemic response,” said Dr. Joshua Sharfstein, vice dean of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, echoes. “Not only vaccination, but also the test of contact detection, precaution and general vigilance … it will require much more than vaccinations, because in the short term we generally do not have enough vaccinations.”
The British tribe
Health officials in the UK first announced in mid-December that a new strain needed to be detected – just one week after it became the first country in the world to administer a vaccine. At a press conference, National Health Secretary Matt Hancock revealed that the new mutation was observed in more than 1,000 patients there, causing a new wave of strict closures across the country. It is suspected that the tension dates back to mid-September. By the end of December, its spread correlated with a large increase in the number of COVID-19 infections in the country.
The phrase “more contagious” can be misleading, Monto said. For example, data on the new strain does not tell us that someone who has been exposed to it will become infected more quickly than someone who has been exposed to the old strain under identical conditions. This specifically refers to the rate at which the viruses propagate.
“Let’s look at this in terms of what we know,” Monto said. ‘What we do know is that this virus repeats itself better. In an individual, it takes less of this virus to cause an infection. How do we know that? We do not know about this in terms of ‘people in a room and how many become infected with one variant versus the other.’ But what is very clear is that this virus is more effective and has taken over from the old virus. It tells us that it has an advantage in reproduction. ‘
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced at a press conference on Friday that the dominant variant there could be as much as 30 percent more deadly than the original. The findings come from an article published by the New and Emerging Virus Threats Advisory Group – a study that, according to Monto, was based on a very small number of patients in just a handful of institutions.
‘Many other things could be related to an increase in mortality,’ he said, ‘including when, as in the UK, you have a larger number of people under care. It’s based on small numbers, so we can really say nothing right now. We can not speculate. ”
“It was a statement he made,” Redlener said of Johnson, who sounded the alarm. “There was not really much evidence to go on. But he drew a conclusion and made it public … For now I would say Boris Johnson should have kept his statement until there was more evidence. ‘
The South African tribe
Not long after the British tribe was first announced, a variant called B.1.351 emerged in South Africa. According to the CDC, the new tribe shared some mutations with its British predecessor. It also apparently had a higher transfer rate. Most worrying about the South African strain, however, was a new mutation in the genetic code that some experts feared would reduce the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines. Some feasibility studies, of which few have been peer-reviewed, have found that the mutation E484K in the South African variant limits the effectiveness of antibodies by up to 50 percent.
“It’s definitely a concern,” Redlener referred to a report on NBC’s studies by Richard Engel. ‘It is worrying because a legitimate scientist calls it. What we do not know is how reliable his studies were that led him to the conclusion. ”
Monto found the conclusions less disturbing, noting that the studies drew from a small amount of research and very few cases from the real world. “The end result is that they are trying in a laboratory to see if the blood of vaccines neutralizes the variants, as well as the original virus,” said dr. Monto said. ‘It looks like they are and to date there are several newspapers. One says their test is good. Another says it’s not that good, but it’s good. ‘
Other tribes
According to the CDC, another new variant has been detected in Japan among four travelers from Brazil. While relatively little is known about the Brazilian variant, Reuters reported on Friday that the new strain accounts for almost half of the new infections in Manaus, the largest city in the Brazilian state of Amazonas.
Last summer, according to the WHO, a type of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Denmark in collaboration with the country’s mink farming. The country has killed 17 million miners to prevent the virus from spreading to humans.
In California, scientists found a new variant at the end of December, not long after the state experienced its deadliest surge in the pandemic. According to the Los Angeles Times, two research groups observed the new form as they searched for evidence that the British tribe had traveled west. It is also very transferable, it now appears to be the fastest growing variant in the state. Despite the discovery, local officials and media largely placed the blame on residents, who they said stopped stopping the closure guidelines.
“This is a very complicated question: what causes an outbreak in a particular place,” Redlener said. ‘A lot has to do with basic compliance. But on top of that, there may be some other strains that just haven’t been identified. We work a lot in the dark. This is a lot of guesswork and speculation. We just have to keep looking. ”