The chances of a person hospitalized for COVID-19 dying in Los Angeles County have doubled in recent months.
This is according to an analysis released by the Department of Health Services on Wednesday, and finds that the chance of someone dying from the disease while hospitalized is from about 1 in 8 in September and October to about 1 in 4 has increased since early November.
This increased chance coincides with a devastating increase in the death toll from LA County. In early November, when the current coronavirus boom began, there were on average fewer than 20 COVID-19 deaths per day. But during the week-long period that ended Wednesday, about 206 deaths were reported daily, according to data compiled by The Times.
More than 4,000 of CO County-LA’s 14,000 plus deaths in LA County have been reported since New Year’s Day. The province accounts for about 41% of California’s 35,000 cumulative COVID-19 deaths, although it is home to only a quarter of the country’s population.
Dr. Roger Lewis, director of the COVID-19 hospital demand models for the LA County Department of Health Services, said the increased chance of dying is due to hospitals being so overcrowded that only the sickest patients are admitted.
Since COVID-19 patients admitted to the hospital are now once worse ill, it is likely that a greater percentage of them will die.
“During the current boom, while hospitals are critically overcrowded, clinicians are extremely judicious in their decisions to admit patients to the hospital,” Lewis said.
“The current data indicate that only patients are admitted who are reasonably ill and clearly need acute hospitalization. “And probably a larger percentage of patients will be sent home with instructions to return to the hospital if their illness worsens,” Lewis said.
While state data shows that 7,073 coronavirus-positive patients were admitted to hospital nationwide on Wednesday – more than 12% of the record high of 8,098 that occurred on January 5 – the number of COVID patients in need of intensive care remained relatively low during the same period and fell to 1,687 on Wednesday, 2.5% lower than the high of 1,731 on January 8.
If hospitals are less in crisis, they are more likely to admit people who are about to need hospitalization.
As the demand for resources and beds grew, the needs of COVID-19 patients in LA County increased.
Here is an overview of how the composition of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the country changed from September and October, when the pandemic was less overwhelming, to the training period that began in November.
Between 4 September and 3 November, the resources required for each COVID-19 patient averaged:
• Days in hospital: 6.93
• Days in the intensive care unit: 2.09
• Days on mechanical ventilation: 1.16
Since November 3, the resources required for each COVID-19 patient have averaged:
• Days in hospital: 9.49
• Days in the ICU: 2.38
• Days on mechanical ventilation: 1.89
The actual care that a particular patient needs can vary greatly. For example, some patients require no care in the ICU, while other weeks may be spent on ventilators, struggling to breathe and generally anesthetizing, with a tube inserted through their mouth into the trachea and connected to a machine. who breathes for them.
Although the province has seen some improvement in its overall hospital numbers, Barbara Ferrer, director of public health, stressed that the current figure remains alarmingly – and unsustainably – high.
“There are still a very large number of COVID patients, and our hospitals are flooded with people suffering from serious health problems due to COVID-19,” she said during an information session on Wednesday.
Daily deaths remain extraordinarily high in LA County, leading to the National Guard being called in to help overloaded hospitals by taking corpses to the country’s coroner’s office for storage until funeral homes and mortuaries can process the backlog. Local air quality officials suspended the number of cremations monthly to prevent a public health crisis.
The current death toll is “more than double that of the years of pre-pandemic, leading to hospitals, funeral homes and crematoria exceeding capacity without processing the backlog,” the South Coast Air Quality Management District said Sunday.
The air quality agency said more than 2,700 bodies would be stored in hospitals and morgues from Friday.
In mid-April, when the pandemic was at an early stage, the daily COVID-19 mortality rate in LA County was about 50 on average. The current wave was significantly worse, with the average daily death toll from 241 deaths per day during the seven-day period ending January 14.
While the number of daily deaths has dropped, the rate is still significantly higher than ever in the pandemic. On Wednesday, local health law in LA County reported 294 deaths COVID-19, one of the highest one-day counts of the entire pandemic. The record number of deaths reported in one day is 318, reported on January 8 and 12.
“COVID-19 is still taking up too many lives – young and old – and so many families and friends are facing difficult times without their loved ones,” Ferrer said.
LA County, by far the country with the largest population, drives and reflects wider trends throughout the country.
California as a whole has also seen a decline in its hospitalization numbers – reason for cautious optimism, officials say, but not yet celebration.
On Wednesday, the number of COVID-19 patients across the country in the hospital dropped to 19,537, the lowest level since December 26th. Of these, 4,670 patients are in ICUs, at least in two weeks.
“These are rays of hope that shine through,” said Dr. Mark Ghaly, California’s secretary of health and human services, said this week.
But the state, like LA County, sees a large number of deaths daily. California has averaged 485 daily deaths in the past week, a 27% increase from two weeks ago, according to data compiled by The Times.
Over the past 14 days, California has reported 17.7 COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 residents, the 12th highest percentage among all states, according to Times data. Arizona recorded the highest rate during that time, 28.1.
Times staff writer Laura J. Nelson contributed to this report.