Year after year, experts repeat the same mantra about the Australian Open: expect dismay. ‘Tennis’s annual surprise party’, read one headline years ago about the first Grand Slam of the tennis year.
But over the past decade, compared to the other majors, the Happy Slam looks more like a Gloomy Slam for underdogs. Despite the early timing of the event, the best players performed better at the Australian Open – which started in Melbourne on Monday – than at any of the other three biggest tennis championships.
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From 2011 to 2020, the average ranking of an Australian Open quarter-final was no. 16 (15.8), the highest ranking among all the Grand Slams. If there are upsets at the biggest tennis tournaments, it will most likely occur later in the year. The average quarterfinals at the French Open were 18.3, Wimbledon 21.4 and the US Open 20.6.
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The trend is particularly pronounced on the women’s side, where the average quarter-final on the last three Grand Slams seasons has been around 24 or higher. “After a long season, you’re just trying to survive at the end,” said German Angelique Kerber, whose first of three Grand Slam titles came in 2016 in Melbourne.
Melbourne quarterfinals are usually highly regarded
Average ranking of quarterfinals in every Grand Slam tennis since 2011
| Australian Open | French Open | Wimbledon | US Open | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Women | Men | Women | Men | Women | Men | Women | Men |
| 2020 | 24.8 | 21.0 | 61.1 | 16.4 | – | – | 33.0 | 16.6 |
| 2019 | 16.9 | 17.3 | 22.3 | 7.6 | 33.8 | 18.6 | 15.4 | 21.4 |
| 2018 | 15.6 | 29.5 | 22.6 | 16.0 | 41.9 | 13.3 | 18.5 | 13.9 |
| 2017 | 22.6 | 15.1 | 18.0 | 6.9 | 21.0 | 11.5 | 72.5 | 23.8 |
| 2016 | 27.9 | 8.3 | 45.8 | 13.8 | 25.6 | 14.6 | 30.1 | 25.4 |
| 2015 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 24.5 | 6.3 | 18.1 | 13.5 | 19.9 | 10.0 |
| 2014 | 15.0 | 6.6 | 18.0 | 9.5 | 17.0 | 26.1 | 21.3 | 9.4 |
| 2013 | 16.9 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 17.5 | 28.4 | 24.8 | 9.4 |
| 2012 | 17.0 | 7.4 | 28.4 | 5.4 | 11.8 | 13.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 |
| 2011 | 12.4 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 13.4 | 28.4 | 30.0 | 23.0 | 10.5 |
Conventional thinking was that the early timing of the Australian Open, usually in the third week of the season, inferior players had a better chance of beating the best players than they would have in the middle of the year, than the best once played in the form. But experts believe that more players are committing themselves to starting the season well, which has led to more fortunes with chalk.
Gone are the days when players would land in Australia immediately before the tournament and just hope to play well, said Brad Gilbert, a former top five player and former coach of Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick.
In the early nineties, Gilbert remembers arriving in Melbourne a week before the tournament and trying to chase him into a form of play, only to feel tired two days later. These days, players usually arrive in Australia two weeks before the tournament and accommodate themselves in the Aussie summer.
“They get there early and prepare,” Gilbert said. “The Aussie sets the tone for the year.”
Players say that the early timing of the tournament helps them to play some of their best, rather than playing some of their worst tennis. During the 11-month season, they did not change time zones for months and saw the world, so they are excited to play again when they come to Australia.
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“This is the start of the season,” said top-seeded Novak Djokovic. “Everyone is fresh and ready to start their year.”
This was definitely the case for the 33-year-old world no. 1, who will claim his ninth Australian Open title this two weeks. Djokovic struggled with an injury in a five-set game against American Taylor Fritz on Friday, but still claimed the victory.
The first Grand Slam of the season featured some of the fairy tales. In 2002, Sweden’s 16th seed Thomas Johansson won his lone Grand Slam title in Melbourne, and unseeded finalists Marcos Baghdatis and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga advanced to 2006 and 2008 respectively.
More recently, in 2018, a trio of players outside the top 40 – Kyle Edmund (49), Hyeon Chung (58) and Tennys Sandgren (97) – all reached the quarterfinals.
On the women’s side, Sofia Kenin of the USA, the 15th seed, only last year never reached the fourth round of a major championship, but still she won the Australian Open.
But many top players were upset in Melbourne early on. Kenin himself, who was selected fourth this year, falls in the second round to unseeded Kaia Kanepi on Thursday. Bianca Andreescu and no. 9 Petra Kvitová was also on the women’s side earlier this year, while Gaël Monfils, number 12, Roberto Bautista Agut and David Goffin, lost number 13.
But overall, players in the top 10 have lasted longer in the Australian Open than in the other Grand Slams. The ten players who selected the best have won an average of 3.48 rounds in the Australian Open since 2011; that average is 3.39 rounds at the French Open, 3.13 at the US Open and just 3.03 at Wimbledon.
This year, of course, was different for almost every player in Australia. They had to be quarantined due to local pandemic restrictions, and they did not have their usual Grand Slam preparations. Melbourne closed on Friday after a new group of COVID-19 cases was developed, and fans – who were allowed in a limited number at the tournament – will now be kept out.
All of these changes make Gilbert think that the first Grand Slam season could offer a shock or two and start the year off by holding a real surprise party.
“This year is like no other,” he said. “I would be surprised if we did not have a surprising semi-final.”