February 4, 2021 by Zachary Shahan
How fast can Tesla grow? It’s a question of a few hundred billion dollars or so. It seems that the answer mostly comes down to the battery. Tesla is currently building giant car factories in Germany and Texas, while its Chinese factory is also being expanded. Its battery supply is also increasing, but it seems that it can never meet the demand for the vehicle and production capacity.
CEO Elon Musk indicated during the last Tesla quarterly conference call that they could manufacture the Tesla Semi – a fully electric semi-truck launched a few years ago – if they had just enough batteries for it. Fans of electric vehicles, especially the hawks of climate and air quality, have since eagerly awaited the production of this truck, as it could reduce emissions so dramatically and seemingly surpass fossil-fueled semi-trucks at cost and performance. But we waited and waited while Tesla gained the capacity of Model 3 and Model Y to be profitable and remain profitable (while also having a large number of light vehicles — miles carbon-free).
Tesla indicated during the conference that production of Semi would begin later this year. Now, the word on the street is that it means mid 2021, not late 2021.
Tesla semi-production expectations
EXCLUSIVE: I have been in contact with a source from an American Tesla supplier for a few weeks now. They provide certain parts for the S, X, 3 and Y, but I’m here to reveal information about Tesla Semi. As always, take these kinds of things with a grain of salt. Things / timelines can change.
1/6
– Sawyer Merritt @ (@SawyerMerritt) February 4, 2021
Whether the final event will take place in Nevada and Texas or will eventually just switch to Giga Texas once the factory is finished is unclear.
3/6
– Sawyer Merritt @ (@SawyerMerritt) February 4, 2021
Total projection:
2021: 2 500
2022: 10,000
2023: 25,000
2024: 25 000The start of the EU will be by 2023.
5/6
– Sawyer Merritt @ (@SawyerMerritt) February 4, 2021
I may have additional information to share later 🙂
– Sawyer Merritt @ (@SawyerMerritt) February 4, 2021
It makes a little more sense. The US annual sales of Class 8 trucks are ~ 200-250 000 units.
It is clear that not all production will be for the US market, yet it is a significant market share that they are striving for. But I expect it to start at least 2 years from production.
– Tavi (@tavi_chocochip) February 4, 2021
Personally, the Semi is the Tesla model I have found the most exciting since the Model 3. There is so much potential to reduce pollution, the vehicle is so smooth and smooth, the autonomous vehicle chances for trucks are great and have dozens of large businesses -ordered Semis, who shows a strong demand for (or at least interest in) the new vehicle.
An estimate of sales of 50,000 semi-trucks a year seems reasonable. For now. Once Tesla Semi trucks can fully manage themselves, the value of the trucks seems attractive enough to lead to many more annual sales.
Tesla Giga Berlin comes together
Another tweet about Tesla struck me as a further indication that Tesla’s production ramps are moving pretty nicely. Alex Voigt noted on the German Tesla website that the website now says under Model Y: “Production is expected to start by mid-2021.”
🇩🇪 Giga Berlin
Now officially on the German order page
“Production is expected to start in mid-2021” !!! pic.twitter.com/jxFx6r8JJL
– Alex (@alex_avoigt) 3 February 2021
Production of the Model Y (and / or Model 3) in Germany would quickly make the company a three-continent manufacturer, with the mass production of the Model Y (and probably Model 3) on each continent. Tesla already manufactures the Model 3 and Model Y in the US and in China. The production of Model 3 and Model Y in Germany also means that costs can drop, as certain fees (such as import taxes) will no longer bother the model.
Let us know if you are raising even more creations about the production of Tesla vehicles – whether it is Semi-production, Berlin production or Mars production plans.
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About the author
Zachary Shahan tries to help society one word at a time. He spends most of his time here CleanTechnica as director, editor-in-chief and CEO. Zach is recognized worldwide as an expert in electric vehicles, solar energy and energy storage. He has presented on beauty techniques at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, Canada and Curaçao. Zach has long-term investments in NIO [NIO], Tesla [TSLA], and Xpeng [XPEV]. But he offers no (explicit or implicit) investment advice of any kind.