After announcing Tesla’s production and delivery numbers in the first quarter, I wanted to take a closer look at Tesla’s long-term delivery trends. However, to make it a little more enjoyable, I go on a thin limb and create maps that predict quarterly Tesla deliveries for the rest of the year. Feel free to look and tell me where, why and how I look like an idiot. (Also feel free to insert your own numbers or cards in the comments below the article!)
I’ll start with the simplest topic – quarterly Tesla deliveries of all models together. Then I jump to quarterly deliveries of the Tesla Model 3 + Tesla Model Y and Tesla Model S + Tesla Model X, which Tesla reports every quarter. Finally, I venture into the game “choose your own snare” and go apart delivery estimates for each of the 4 models.
Interactive maps are included at the bottom of the article. It is much better to watch if you are not on a phone.
Clearly, Tesla had a strong increase in quarterly deliveries from 2013 to 2021. The past two quarters have been tremendous for Tesla, and many thought Tesla would never be able to reach this height. If you double Tesla’s Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 numbers to make an estimate for the full year, you get annual sales of 730,740. Many people who have followed Tesla’s story over the past decade (dare I say it most?), Thought that Tesla would never be able to produce and deliver 500,000 vehicles a year. The last few quarters have been the great justification on which we have long believed in Elon Musk and Tesla.
If you place these numbers on the same scale as the following graph (like me), you can see that there is also a lot of room for improvement. I expect that we will see enough improvement in the next few quarters to fill the space. Here’s my prediction, which I have to say, is partly driven by Rodney Hooper who tells me in a podcast on Friday (which we will be publishing soon) that he sees Tesla reaching 900,000 deliveries in 2021:
This is of course what the experts call a WAG (wild-ass guess), but my forecast for the next few quarters is: 210,000 deliveries in Q2 2021, 240,000 deliveries in Q3 2021 and 275,400 deliveries in Q4 2021.
The graph looks logical and the quarterly numbers increase as Tesla’s production capacity increases. I’m not going into the 1 million vehicle area that I know some people expect. Others certainly do not expect more than 700,000 deliveries. We’ll see.
You can see specific quarterly figures in the interactive charts below.
If you look at the model that Tesla published, you can see a trend.
Yes, the mass market models are flourishing. Meanwhile, production of Model S and X was at zero in the first quarter, leading to lower than low deliveries.
Of course, I expect a Model S and X rebound, but I do not expect large production capacity for these models, and basically only predicted a return to the numbers before the collapse, as the production capacity increases slowly.
Tesla’s focus will be on increasing the production capacity of its physically smaller sales boards, especially the Model Y.
For various reasons, I expect the Model Y to have greater demand in the long run than the Model 3 – perhaps significantly greater demand. I also expect it to ramp up to the current level of the Model 3 faster than it took Model 3 to shoot up there. About 75% of their parts are shared, but the Model Y offers more space and a higher seat, which people like. As the production capacity of Model Y increases especially in China, I expect that we will only climb and climb and climb the model throughout the year.
After 2021 we will see. We have Giga Berlin and Giga Texas online. The Cybertruck should come to market. Tesla will be more able to switch between Model 3 and Model Y production as overall production capacity climbs and sees where more is needed.
Here are bar charts that show the same numbers in a different way, but I only take the interactive one (unlike the one above) they are not fixed scales:
Here are the rest of the interactive maps (versions of the static maps shared above):
The end.
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