Oaxaca de Juárez. – The campas hacia las voters as of June 6th, he has not formally started in all countries and has a total of 61 actors political assassins, from the 18th century aspirants to a popular election cargo, agreed with the Indicator of Political Violence in Mexico developed by the specialist consultancy Etellekt.
Ivonne Gallegos Carreño, candidate for the presidency of the municipality of Ocotlán de Morelos, Oaxaca, assassinated on Saturday, is the victim 18 in this process elections which was arranged in September 2020. It is subject to a process involving a cumulative set of risk factors that are linked to armed aggression, as opposed to some protection.
These crimes are committed in a moment preview of the final definition of the candidacy, considered by the consultancy as one of the mayor of riesgo, together with the final tram of the campaigns.
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Sube violencia
Agreed with Rubén Salazar, specialist in political analysis and risk and director of the consultant Etellekt, the 2021 electoral process is considered as the second most violent in history, only for the year 2018, when 48 aspirant y candidates.
Salazar identifies four scenarios that can guide the actual electoral process in the matter of violence: a deseable, another inercial, a critical and another catastrophic.
At the moment it is superior to the first and there is 80% probability that the applicants and candidates will be between 30 and 60.
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To surpass the 48 victims of 2018, Mexico has been launching the critical scenario.
“Empieza a aumentar la violence at the moment: during the period of candidacy definitions and when they are arranged campñas.
“If there is a pattern of violence in pre-campaign or cross-country campaigns, when the aspirants are not registered with the electoral bodies,” Salazar declares.
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The previous one, the expert explains, because success is when the aspirants are more vulnerable, only through the solo protection of candidates with no registers for the candidates.
“The response from the authority is more lax when assessing an aspirant who has his candidates registered before electoral organs.
“Cases quedan en el olvido y la impunidad, y en pocas ocasiones se da con el intelectual author”, agrega y da como exemplo que, de los 18 aspirant que han asesinado en este process, solo hay detenciones por un caso.
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Mayor riesgo
Of the aspiring candidates, 14 are contested by a Municipal presidency and 66% are opposed by the opposition. Además, 15 eran originals of states of sureste del país.
Following a content elaborated by THE UNIVERSAL, of the 18 aspiring aspirants, is the son of Veracruz; cuatro de Guerrero; dos de Quintana Roo. Guanajuato, Chihuahua, Chiapas and Jalisco all have one, respectively. They are the victims of Oaxaca. Of these, 15 eran men and three women.
For the specialist, other risk factors can be enumerated in the assessors de quienes buscan un election power its presence of narcotics, high social and political conflict, margins and offers of aspiring proposals to combat the organized crime o la corruption.
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Affirm that the protection model presented by the federal governor is part of a diagnostic error that is based solely on the number of executed, without taking into account risk factors such as intimidation and intimidation, resulting in “impossible burdensome protection measures” no sabe quiènes están en riesgo ”.
The finality, exposure, tenderness that identifies the candidates in risk and accesses them to take mediums of time and only when there is a risk of losing life.
Además, subraya que el plan del gobierno parte de una criminalization Of the victims, some ways of lying are assured that in the Mayor of the cases is the organized crime, without taking into account the political motives and the antecedents of the victims. This, affirma, is a regression to the narrative of the goblins of Felipe Calderón y Enrique Peña Nieto.
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“It is not only the assessee, infiltrates psychological terror into the candidate or aspirant, obliges us to resort to using extreme methods of violence, but does not investigate cases such as the arrangements to identify mobiles and execute corresponding electoral sanctions. politics is a tool of electoral competence that defines the results in a contingent ”, the expert states.