The coronavirus pandemic will shorten life expectancy at birth for Americans by about a year due to the more than 336,000 deaths due to the disease in 2020 in the US, according to new research.
Researchers at the University of Southern California and Princeton plan to reduce life expectancy by 1.13 years, to 77.48 years, according to their study, which was published Thursday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
This is the lowest life expectancy estimated since 2003 – and according to Science Daily is the largest decline in one year in at least 40 years.
The study found that the decline in life expectancy is likely to be even steeper among minority populations.
For black people, the life expectancy of the researchers would be reduced by 2.10 years to 72.78 years, and for Latinos by 3.05 years to 78.77 years, according to the research.
Among whites, the projected decline is 0.68 years to a life expectancy of 77.84 years – while the gap in life expectancy between blacks and whites is expected to widen by 40 percent, from 3.6 to more than five years.
“Our study analyzes the effect of this extraordinary number of deaths on life expectancy for the entire country, as well as the consequences for marginalized groups,” said study author Theresa Andrasfay, a postdoctoral fellow at the USC Leonard Davis School of Gerontology. .
“The exorbitant effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the life expectancy of black and Latino Americans is likely to be due to their greater exposure through their workplace or extended family contacts, in addition to receiving poorer health care, leading to more infections and worse outcomes. , “she added.
The coronavirus apparently eliminated many of the gains made to reduce the black-and-white life expectancy gap since 2006, Science Daily reports.
Latinos, who experienced lower deaths than whites, would reduce their survival advantage from more than three years over whites to less than one year.
“The enormous decline in life expectancy for Latinos is particularly shocking, as Latinos have lower rates than the white and black population of most chronic conditions that are risk factors for COVID-19,” said co-author Noreen Goldman, a professor of demography. said. and public affairs at Princeton.
“The overall good health of Latinos before the pandemic, which they had to protect against COVID-19, exposed the risks associated with social and economic harm,” she said.
The study estimated life expectancy at birth and at age 65 for 2020 for the total U.S. population and by race and ethnicity.
The researchers used four death scenarios – one in which the pandemic did not occur, and three others involving COVID-19 mortality projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent global health research center at the University of Washington.
“The greater decline in life expectancy for the Black and Latino populations is due in part to an excessive number of deaths at younger ages for these groups,” Goldman said.
“These findings highlight the need for protective behaviors and programs to reduce potential exposure to viruses among younger individuals who do not consider themselves at high risk,” she added.
The expected decline in life expectancy with pandemics is about ten times as large as the declines seen in recent years.
During the 1918 flu pandemic, life expectancy was reduced by an extraordinary seven to twelve years.