In the meantime, there must be an earlier vote the turnout lagged behind in Republican-held congressional districts, and likely left GOP senses Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue with a bigger deficit on election day than they had to compensate on Nov. 3, with the early voting ending this week until the New Year holidays.
Both parties kept a close eye on the personal and absent ballots that had already been submitted, looking for information on the state of the races after the extremely close matches in November, and with less than a week left to adjust the outcome. and advertising strategies for next Tuesday’s vote.
Although the numbers for the early vote offer the Democrats some consolation, it is hardly predictable: Republican officials always expected them to perform better on Election Day compared to the Democrats. GOP voters have long preferred vote in person on election day, but the biased differences in the vote have become even sharper after President Donald Trump criticized most of the year for voting by mail and attacking the administration of November’s election in Georgia .
However, the strong Democratic performance so far puts at least extra pressure on Republicans to act on election day. The two Republican senators rely on Trump to make juice turnout next week: The president is holding his last rally of the election cycle Monday night in one of the state’s most Republican constituencies, an attempt to drive his supporters to the ballot box. in an area where they have to win by large margins.
Karl Rove, the veteran of the GOP who heads the joint fundraising committee between Loeffler, Perdue and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, wrote in a memorandum this week that the hitherto expanded votes favor Democrats as in November, according to a copy. of the memo obtained by POLITICO.
‘Although the combined total number of votes so far by absenteeism and early voting is a few points more democratic than in the autumn, it is probably the result of early voting in the run-up. cut by two days, ”Rove wrote in the memo, referring to the fact that early polling stations were closed on Christmas Eve and Christmas. Day. “We expect GOP numbers to continue to rise this week and forecasts show good weather for the start day, January 5.”
“President Trump’s visit to Dalton for a rally on Monday night, January 4, should help boost the GOP turnout that Tuesday in a big way,” Rove added.
For Democrats, the simple fact that turnout is so high is already positive. The party has consistently struggled in the run-up to Georgia, thanks to the large decline in Democratic voters who have stayed at home since November, a trend that apparently will not continue this year.
It is impossible to draw conclusive conclusions from numbers of early votes, and agents monitoring the trends are wary of predicting January 5 results based on the vote so far. But the trends point to a high turnout and a close election for Democrats, even in a state where their senate candidates underperform Joe Biden’s now victory two months ago.
“Everything I hear looks pretty good. I’m waiting for the other shoe to sag, but that’s not how it was in 2018,” said Chris Huttman, a veteran in the state who watched the early . voting figures.
Democrats lost two games in 2018, after more of their voters did not show up again. But the election took place in December and did not include the sensational interests of these two Senate contests, and it created completely different turnout scenarios. Huttman warned that election day, while it has seemed good to Democrats so far, is a big unknown.
“I can tell you that the light side of the moon looks good, and I do not know what the dark side of the moon will look like,” Huttman said. ‘I know in 2018, I was like’ The light side does not look good. ‘”
Huttman said his analysis shows Democrats adjusted about 80 percent of the early votes they received in November, while Republicans only put about two-thirds of their early votes on the bench.
In Democratic-controlled congressional districts, the percentage of early-age general voters is higher than in Republican-controlled congressional districts, according to voter data GeorgiaVotes.com, which followed the count of the early vote during the run-off. Republicans are aware of the shortage, but rely on their turnout to drive voters to the polls next Tuesday.
One Republican worker who started working on the run-off, who asked anonymity to speak honestly, said the problem of the GOP for early voting was not a major surge among Democrats, but the backlog in their own territory. While early voting takes place during the holidays, including the two days where seats were closed last week, Republicans hope more of their voters simply plan to vote on election day.
“I feel really good about what we did down there,” said the operational champion. “We always knew Georgia would be close. We know where our shortcomings are. We know what to do. ”
Democrats prioritized earlier and absent votes to a greater extent than Republicans, and an advantage was expected at this point. Democrats see it as a firewall against the GOP’s performance next week. But the higher proportion of Black votes, plus the addition of tens of thousands of new voters who did not vote in November, are positive indicators.
Although Biden won the state by a landslide, Perdue outscored Ossoff by nearly 100,000 votes, earning Republicans more general votes than Democrats in the special Senate election. Democrats need a more favorable electorate to be successful in the run-up, and they believe there are indications that it can materialize.
Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart, said the vote so far among the key Democratic constituencies was a ‘very good sign’ for the party, although he warned against interpreting the early vote to determine the outcome of the run-off. try to predict.
“We know they will win election day, but will they have enough to wipe out this advantage?” Bonier of Republicans said. “It seems pretty clear that they will have to win Election Day by a larger margin than in November.”
During the election, Perdue and Loeffler urged on their trail to vote their base early and continue to narrow this gap. So far, the weather forecast for Tuesday is sunny and pleasant. But that did not stop the warnings about waiting.
“You never know what the weather will be like next week. We only have Tuesday next week,” Perdue said Monday in Conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt’s radio program. “You have to come out and vote before Thursday. We’re just telling everyone in the state you can ‘t take the chance not to vote.”