“Dryer conditions in the Southwestern United States associated with La Niña and the failed summer monsoon in 2020 have contributed factors to the development and intensification of what represents the most significant U.S. spring drought since 2013,” says NOAA.
Dry weather is expected to linger in the spring, with below-average rainfall in most of the West. This will probably make the drought situation worse.
One of the contributing factors to the western drought was the lack of snowfall. The largest area of snow drought expansion was in the Sierra Nevada, where no major storms have occurred since the strong atmospheric river in late January. This has left almost all Sierra Nevada weather stations below the 30th percentile snowwater equivalent, and some locations in the Southern Sierra are even below the 10th percentile.
But what is bad for some may be good for others in terms of snowpack. This is the ultimate dichotomy.
This is because, unlike some previous years, the lack of snowmelt means that floods will be less severe across the plains and the Middle East, but it also means that the western states that rely on them need the necessary water to withstand drought conditions. to keep in check.
Drought conditions will worsen as we go into the peak fire season
Drought still plagues about 44% of the adjoining U.S., mostly in the western states, and the prospect of spring expects the drought to continue.
Currently, the worst drought conditions are across the western US, with 20% of the region in exceptional drought. This is the worst category on the scale of the National Drought Mitigation Center. Nearly 90% of the region in general is at least abnormally dry, and these drought conditions can worsen.
The summer with dry conditions is also worrying, because then the veldfire season begins.
“With the forecast of warmer spring temperatures and the drought, the fire season could start earlier in some places and be worse this year,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.
The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) – a division of NOAA – breaks down droughts and livestock affected by drought. As of this week, more than 150 million acres of crops are under drought conditions in the US. The impact of the drought on agriculture can be linked to higher prices due to crop losses.
In other parts of the U.S., a drought may begin: “Warmer-than-average temperatures this spring and low soil moisture will cause drought conditions to develop and expand in the southern and central Great Plains as well as in southern Florida,” according to NOAA.
Meanwhile, a wetter than normal spring is forecast in the northeastern and mid-Atlantic regions. Some areas in this part of the country are currently experiencing dry conditions and in some cases a moderate drought, but it will recede in the northeast of a wet fountain.
NOAA predicts that drought in the Northeast will end thanks to the expected weather patterns this spring.
There is a bright side, but not for everyone
However, drought is not always about rain. Snowpack, again, is a factor.
“In the West, winter snowpack can be more effective in relieving drought than thunderstorms in summer. The snowbag melts slowly and does not just run out of the dried-out soil,” says Myers.
As of this week, nearly 70% of the western adjoining U.S. weather stations are below the median snowwater equivalent.
The lack of strong storms in the Sierra Nevada has left states such as California, Nevada and Arizona with a major downside during the dry season – the summer.
Although the snow drought across the Colorado River can be minimal, it has improved along the Colorado and Wyoming Front Range since the beginning of the month.
While the specific coming was enough of a boom to reach near average levels, water supply forecasts remain below average, “said the West Gulf River Forecast Center.
“There is a reduced flood risk for the majority of the Greater Mississippi River Basin, Red River of the North and Souris Basins, mainly due to abnormal dry conditions, constant drought and a lack of snowpack and associated water equivalent.”
Even compared to last year, the flood danger is lower in many Midwest and Plains regions, which is welcome news for people in parts of the country. Over the past two years, flood threats have increased in much of the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers, so the drier conditions predicted this year are actually considered a positive compared to what is happening with the western american states.
Spring can feel more like summer
The temperature in the spring during the months of April, May and June is predicted to be warmer than normal for the vast majority of the country.
NOAA predicts that all adjoining U.S. will experience overall temperatures above average, with the exception of Northwest. Western Washington is expected to feel below average temperatures, while the rest of the region has an equal chance of being above, below or near normal conditions.
The greatest chance for above-average temperatures is in the southwest of the interior, which is also facing extreme drought conditions.