MADRID – The Spanish government has for years dismissed the separatist movement in the Catalonia region as a “soufflé” – easy to inflate but then collapse on its own.
Yet the movement shows no signs of imminent explosion, not even in the midst of a pandemic that has bridged divisions elsewhere in Europe.
In a regional election Sunday, parties seeking to create a breakaway state for Catalonia – the part of northeastern Spain that includes Barcelona – increased their majority in the regional parliament. They began negotiations this week to form a coalition.
The election election was sharply reduced by the coronavirus, but the final score showed that pro-independence parties received a majority of votes – a price they had long eluded.
“From an independence point of view, this is something to celebrate,” said Adrià Alsina, a Barcelona political analyst who supports Spain’s breakaway. “It’s one argument less for those who oppose independence and say we never have a majority.”
Catalan independence, once a pipe dream of a small group of people, has probably been Spain’s biggest polarizing issue for almost a decade. The strike reached a boiling point in 2017 when the region’s separatist government organized an independent referendum. This continued even after the Spanish courts declared it illegal and the police raided the voters.
The referendum was followed by a declaration of independence, which urged the central government of Spain to oust the Catalan government and charge its members with crimes, including sedition. Some of them fled Spain to avoid prosecution, while others ended up in jail.
Tensions have risen on another front in Catalonia this week after police arrested a popular rapper, Pablo Hásel, in the city of Lleida. Mr. Hásel, 32, whose real name is Pablo Rivadulla Duró, is facing nine months in prison on charges of glorifying his rap-lyrical terrorism and dismantling the monarchy. Demonstrations in support of him began on Tuesday in Barcelona, Madrid and other cities and turned violent.
Before Sunday’s vote, the central government led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez sent his health minister, Salvador Illa, to run in the local elections on a platform focused on staying in Spain. He is resigning his post in the national government and trying to capitalize on the reputation he has recently gained as the face of the government’s response to the pandemic’s health crisis.
The strategy yielded some dividends: Illa did not get enough votes to form a governing coalition, but his party received more support than any other.
The results also showed moderation within the camp for independence. Among the independence parties, voters preferred Esquerra Republicana, a moderate left-wing party that the government of Mr. Sánchez supported in Madrid, but still insists he wants an independent state.
Spanish Foreign Minister Arancha González Laya spoke to reporters after Sunday’s vote, saying the situation in Catalonia looked “more comfortable” from Madrid’s perspective, with left-wing and more moderate parties opposing both sides of the separatists. gorge around.
“There has been progress from those who are more likely to engage in dialogue with the government,” she said. González Laya said.
After the vote, the Spanish government said an independence referendum was not at stake, even though separatist politicians in Catalonia insisted that the demand should be at the heart of any future negotiations with Madrid.
But one issue that is more open to discussion is whether Madrid can forgive nine politicians and activists who were sent to jail for orchestrating the 2017 secession attempt.
Carles Puigdemont, the then president of Catalonia’s regional government, fled the country to evade prosecution. He now lives in Brussels and has since been elected a Member of the European Parliament. He fights an attempt to waive his immunity as a member of the body, which enables the Spanish judiciary to make a new attempt to extradite him.
Jordi Cuixart, one of the politicians seeking forgiveness after being sentenced to nine years in prison, said “Spain has a democracy, but it still maintains an anti-democratic attitude.” He said he not only wanted to be released from prison but also that the government would release him and the others from any offense.
If there is a solution to the independence question, it will take time, said Sandra León, a political scientist at Carlos III University in Madrid.
While the moderate independence wing is likely to sit in the driver’s seat, Puigdemont’s tougher party, Together for Catalonia, is also likely to be part of the regional government.
Vox, a Spanish far-right party that has made its anti-independence position a central issue, will also join the Parliament of Catalonia for the first time, which is likely to fuel further polarization. León said.
Catalan separatists are closely monitoring movements elsewhere in Europe, particularly in Scotland, where the pursuit of independence has been rekindled by Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. The Scots voted against independence during a 2014 referendum approved by London, but then also voted against Britain’s exit from the European Union.
“The independence movement is here to stay,” said Josep Ramoneda, a Catalan columnist and philosopher. “Sooner or later, someone in Madrid will have to admit it.”