After two Starship prototypes reached their launch debuts at great heights only to experience last-second failures for unique reasons, SpaceX is already getting ready for a third launch this week.
Importantly, while Elon Musk’s steady realism (or pessimism) has often underestimated the real chance of success, the SpaceX CEO is significantly more confident about Starship’s third launch attempt than he was on the first flight two months ago. At the time when Starship number 8 (SN8) was preparing to launch the program at the first high point, Musk set the probability of a successful launch, free fall and at ~ 33%.
As it turns out, he was not wrong, but Starship SN8 eventually made far closer to a total success than almost anyone – within SpaceX or not – would expect it to come with the first try. Less than two months later, more than six minutes after the flight, Starship SN9 suffered a similar landing failure, although the causes of both failures were unique.
In other words, both flight tests served their nominal purpose and discovered two methods of failure that would eventually have pulled up somehow. With SN8, Starship could not maintain enough pressure in its secondary landing fuel tank to supply two Raptor engines with enough fuel for a landing fire. Starship SN9 failed a few seconds before SN8 when one of the two Raptor engines needed for a spin and landing fire never ignited, causing the rocket to hit the ground at an angle to the ground. .
As previously discussed on Teslarati, Elon Musk has finally revealed his opinion that SN9’s car-out failure was potentially avoidable and that SpaceX will change the way future Starships try to land in an effort to add more redundancy.
‘Although SpaceX has obviously not turned around for a few days and solved a complicated problem with the propulsion of Starship, Musk eventually revealed his opinion that he, his engineers, or a combination of both’ were ‘too stupid’ to have one Of the obvious ways to use to soften. the risk of engine failure during [Starship SN9’s] flip and landing. That ‘obvious’ adaptation: let go of all three of Starship’s available landing engines, not just two. ”
By igniting not just two – but all three – Raptor engines during the turn of Starship, SpaceX can actually run a static fire in the air, giving the aircraft’s flight computer a few seconds to analyze performance and burn the two sound engines for the final landing. With the implementation of the change, Starship would theoretically have enough redundancy to land if only two of its three birds of prey at sea level perform nominally.
Starship SN10, currently installed on one of the two ‘suborbital sites’ at SpaceX’s South Texas launch platform, will be the first prototype at high altitude to attempt the three-engine-turn and on-the-fly select to select. Musk says his confidence that SN10 will land successfully is now 60%, an almost twofold improvement over SN8. Starship SN10 could possibly fly as early as this week, although the prototype has yet to complete a nominal static fire test with three engines and the launch has not yet been approved by the FAA.
Further down the road, Musk says SpaceX is working hard to improve Raptor’s deep gas performance, potentially allowing future Starships to burn two – or even three – engines to the touch for even more discharge. However, the intrusive large, intricate rocket engines are extremely difficult, so the upgrade is probably no less than a few months away. Meanwhile, Starship SN11 is effectively completed and Starships SN15 to SN18 are being put together to support a relentless flight test campaign as SpaceX works around the orbital flight.