Public documents show that SpaceX plans to fire up and launch its latest Starship prototype within two days, which could launch later today.
SpaceX shipped Starship SN11 from its Boca Chica, Texas rocket factory to test and launch facilities on March 8, less than five days after Starship SN10 exploded minutes after contact. The next day, SpaceX completed ambient temperature testing and filled Starship with benign nitrogen gas to see if it was leaking and to verify the health of the system. Two days later, it appears that Starship SN11 has completed a several-hour cryogen-resistant test – exchanging nitrogen gas for its super-cool liquid form – without performing it.
Despite the seemingly successful ‘cryo proof’, something prevented a subsequent static fire test scheduled for March 12 before any attempt could be made, which delayed the next attempt until the approaching weekend. An agreement between SpaceX, Cameron County and the state of Texas currently prevents the closure of the road (and thus rockets) on weekends that fall between Labor Day and Memorial Day, which meant rules meant a certain amount of public access to Boca Preserve Chica Beach.
As a result, unless SpaceX is already ready to launch (it has pardons for three such weekend closures for launch efforts), the company will have to wait until Monday, even if a minor issue occurs within hours or a day can be corrected, or it scrubs Friday’s test plans. While uncomfortable, it’s worth noting that the existence of that public beach and the strong regulations that protect the public domain are probably one of the only reasons why the general public is still as close as possible to SpaceX’s Boca Chica ‘Starbase ‘can come.
For whatever reason, the closing agreement still means that SpaceX can (in theory) test and launch any day of the week from 31 May to 6 September, saving for a few holidays, which increases the number of events by 40% for those 14 weeks. Until then, SpaceX will do everything in its power to take full advantage of the five days a week is allowed to test Starship prototypes. A
In particular, although Starships SN8 and SN9 both struck a few weeks of technical and regulatory attacks while preparing for their launch efforts at high altitude, SpaceX gradually accelerated the process. Starship SN10, the first prototype of its kind to end up in one piece, took just 33 days to go from road arrival to discount and spent just eight days between its first static fire and launch attempts. The same achievements took Starship SN8 77 and 50 days respectively, with SN9 dividing the difference by 43 days from transport to expiration and 28 days between its first static fire and launch attempts.
Road closure requests, a safety warning for residents and a temporary flight restriction (TFR) submitted to the FAA indicate that SpaceX’s current plan is to launch Starship SN11’s first triple-Raptor static fire between 06: 00 and 12:00 CDT on Monday 15 March to try. If the test goes almost perfectly, SpaceX wants to turn the rocket around for a 10km (6.2 mi) launch attempt on Tuesday 16 March – the next day. Given the past achievements of Starship prototypes at high altitude, the target is certainly ambitious and is likely to cause delays, but it still reveals the true scope of SpaceX’s objectives, even at this early stage of development.
If Starship SN11 can be launched within days of the first static fire attempt, SpaceX will still shatter the 33-day SN10 record by a factor of three. Stay tuned for Monday’s possible static fire and the quick attempt to turn around on Tuesday