South Korea’s population falls for the first time, probably exacerbated by Covid-19

South Korea’s low birth rate is leading to a population decline. Births have dropped to an annual low since 2016. The average number of children a woman in South Korea will give birth to in her lifetime was 1.1 last year, the lowest fertility rate in the world, according to a survey by the United Nations Population Fund among more than 200 countries.

Statistics Korea, South Korea’s statistics arm, initially predicted that the country’s population would decline in 2021 after taking into account other factors for population change, such as immigration.

But the pandemic, which has hurt jobs and forced couples to delay marriages, likely outweighed the birth rate, especially in South Korea where most childbirths occur after marriage, said Choi Seong-soo, a professor of sociology at the Yonsei University of Seoul.

“It’s too early to see that these factors are now affecting the birth rate,” Choi said. “But we expect the consequences to come by 2021 and 2022.”

A report by the Bank of Korea, released in December, said the Covid-19 shock could have a permanent impact on the country’s birth rate as delays in childbirth turn into permanent decisions to have children to abandon completely.

South Korea reported 275,815 births and 307,764 deaths in 2020, according to the Interior and Security Ministry. The country, which has kept outbreaks relatively stable, reported 981 deaths related to Covid-19.

With fewer newborns, according to South Korea, according to 20 Statistics Korea, the largest percentage of individuals aged 65 or older will be reached by 2045, surpassing Japan, currently one of the oldest countries in the world.

Japan has made kindergarten free and is urging companies to allow employees to leave on time. But after a slight upswing over the past decade, the country’s birth rate has fallen over the past four years.

South Korea’s aging population is expected to hamper the country’s growth as its working age declines. One study estimates that South Korea’s potential production capacity will decrease by about one percentage point from 2024 due to demographic changes.

The pandemic highlighted South Korea’s growing reliance on low-income immigrant workers, particularly in the agricultural and basic manufacturing sectors, after air barriers suddenly closed the doors to many temporary workers. Policymakers began investigating immigration in response to changing population dynamics, focusing on bringing skilled foreign workers to the country.

Government officials estimate that by 2040, immigrants and temporary residents will make up 6.9% of the total population, an increase of 4.3% from last year.

The government has poured in tens of billions of dollars to increase the country’s sick birth rate, which has been a priority policy for many South Korean leaders, including President Moon Jae-in.

In some smaller, rural cities outside the metropolitan area of ​​Seoul, local governments distributed cash to households with multiple children. One city is considering offering a housing allowance of about $ 47,000 for families with three or more children. The country’s competitive lottery for buying new apartments – a points system with a random draw – is very skewed to benefit households with more children.

The efforts did not yield much of the turnaround. Meanwhile, many young women have been put off by the government’s diagnosis of slipping birth rates. In 2017, a study by a government research agency singled out women’s high academic and career performance as the cause of declining birth rates.

Although the crisis of the overgrown population in South Korea is not unique, demographics say the rate is unprecedented. About 14% of South Koreans are currently elderly. This is below the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s average, according to the group’s latest data, 2018, about half of Japan’s level and below the 20% range seen in parts of Europe.

But in two decades, South Korea’s elderly will exceed 40% of the total population, said Lee Sam-sik, director of Hanyang University’s Institute of Aging Association, in Seoul.

“This is a big leap in the elderly population in a very short period of time,” Lee said.

—Peter Landers in Tokyo contributed to this article.

Write to Eun-Young Jeong by [email protected]