Simulations suggest that Earth’s oxygen-rich atmosphere will last only another billion years

Some researchers from Toho University and NASA Nexus for Exoplanet System Science have found through simulation evidence that the Earth will lose its oxygen-rich atmosphere within about 1 billion years. Published in their paper in the journal Natural Sciences, Kazumi Ozaki and Christopher Reinhard describe the factors that went into their simulation and what it showed.

Scientists all agree that life cannot go on forever on planet Earth – eventually the sun will run out of energy and destroy itself. Life forms are likely to find it increasingly difficult to survive as the sun warms. In this new effort, the researchers tried to find the tipping point for life – when the planet will no longer be able to support most plants and animals.

To find the tipping point, the researchers created a simulation of the Earth that took into account variables that describe the climate as well as geological and biological processes, and most importantly, the activity of the sun. The researchers then did their simulation to see how the earth fared in the future.

The simulation showed that the carbon dioxide levels in the Earth’s atmosphere would start to drop as the sun became warmer over 1 billion years from now, releasing more energy as the gas absorbs and breaks down the heat. The ozone layer would also be burned off. When the carbon dioxide levels drop, the plant life will then undergo, which reduces the production of oxygen. Over a period of only 10,000 years, CO₂ levels will drop so much that plant life will become extinct. Without plant life, land and sea dwellings would soon become extinct due to the lack of a breathable atmosphere. Meanwhile, the simulation also shows increasing levels of methane entering the atmosphere, accelerating the demise of creatures that need oxygen to breathe. The result, according to the simulation, would be a planet without life, except for small anaerobic creatures such as bacteria – conditions that are very similar to the earth before the evolution of plants and animals.

The researchers suggest that their simulation may be useful for those on other planets looking for life – according to them, the opportunity shortage may be shorter than previously thought.

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