‘We find ourselves ten months into one of the most disastrous global health events of our lifetime, ”Stanford University immunologist and bio-threat expert David Relman wrote in November,“ and, disturbingly, we do not yet know how it started. The continuing uncertainty is of paramount importance: the exact origin of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, once resolved, will better prepare us for future pandemic threats. But finding out what really happened requires careful and coordinated scientific investigations that are only just beginning.
Meanwhile, we can speculate. A long essay by Nicholson Baker, published a few weeks ago in New York Magazine, stated that the pandemic had started with a laboratory accident; and while the article as a irresponsible, badly informed and one-sided presentation, even his most ardent critics could concede that the possibility of a laboratory leak cannot be ruled out with certainty.
There are now two major attempts to investigate where Covid-19 came from: one set up by the World Health Organization, and the other by a leading medical journal, The Lancet. The investigation is expected to take months or even years, and given the many challenges involved, it can never provide conclusive answers. However, it is already clear that both are being compromised by a lack of clear procedures to manage conflicts of interest and questionable independence. It is now imperative that governments and the scientific community act swiftly to improve this.
The problem begins with the nature of the investigations, which must initially determine whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmitted directly from wild animals to the population (the most likely scenario, according to most experts) or perhaps from a laboratory environment escaped. But many of the people who are most qualified to look at this question – those with the most relevant technical knowledge – also happen to be those who work in that laboratory environment, or who have close professional ties with the people who do it.
In other words, these are exactly the people who can be blamed (directly or as part of a research community) if the virus is ever returned to a laboratory.
This fundamental tension is not at all uncommon in the convening of expert committees, by governments or otherwise. Decades ago, scientists who had a relationship with tobacco companies were one of those with the best understanding of the effects of smoking on public health, but its inclusion in health advisory committees was problematic and helped lead to stricter approaches to managing conflicts of interest. motivate. Fortunately, governments around the world have a long history of implementing these approaches; and it is certainly possible to use appropriate expertise via formal interrogation or testimony without including those with conflict as investigators. Unfortunately, it is not clear that one of the leading investigations into the origin of the pandemic follows the appropriate best practices.
Both investigations include, for example, Peter Daszak, a pathologist and president of the EcoHealth Alliance, a research organization with a history of research on SARS-related coronaviruses and its effects on humans, including collaborative work done at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The Wuhan Institute happens to be the only laboratory in China that may work with the most dangerous pathogens in the world, and it is located on the apparent ground zero of the current outbreak.
If there was a leak in the lab – and again, most experts do not believe the available evidence points in this direction – then the Wuhan Institute and its US partner will be on a short list of candidates to investigate set. It should be obvious that no one with any connection to any of the organizations can play a formal role in any truly independent investigation into the origin of the pandemic. (Of course, their expert input can and should be requested in other ways.)
It is also noteworthy that very early in the crisis, Daszak expressed certainty that the disease originated in nature. Last winter, just after the WHO first named the virus, it issued a formal statement condemning ‘conspiracy theories most strongly suggesting that Covid-19 did not have a natural origin’, and to ‘together with colleagues in Wuhan and across China. More than two dozen other scientists would sign the letter, published by The Lancet on February 19, 2020. Emails obtained through the Freedom of Information Act indicate that Daszak organized the effort from the beginning.