Sea level rise in the 20th century was the fastest in 2000 years along most of the East Coast

The rate of sea level rise in the 20th century along much of the U.S. Atlantic coast was the fastest in 2000 years, and southern New Jersey had the fastest rates, according to a study led by Rutgers.

The global rise in sea level of melting ice and warming oceans from 1900 to 2000 led to a rate more than twice the average for the period 0 to 1800 – the most important change, according to the study in the journal Nature communication.

The study looked for the first time at the phenomena that at six coastal areas (in Connecticut, New York, New Jersey and North Carolina) contributed to changes in sea level over 2000 years, in a budget at sea level. A budget increases the understanding of the processes that cause change at sea level. The processes are global, regional (including geological, such as soil subsidence) and local, such as groundwater abstraction.

“Having a thorough understanding of sea level change in the long term is essential for local and local planning and to respond to future sea level rise,” said lead author Jennifer S. Walker, a postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Earth said. and Planetary Sciences at the School of Arts and Sciences at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “By learning how different processes change over time and contribute to change at sea level, we can more accurately estimate future contributions in specific areas.”

Rising sea levels due to climate change can permanently flood low-lying islands, cities and countries. It also increases their vulnerability to floods and damage from storms along the coast and others.

Most budget studies at sea level are worldwide and limited to the 20th and 21st centuries. Rutgers-led researchers have estimated sea level budgets for longer time frames over 2000 years. The aim was to better understand how the processes that drive sea level have changed and can shape future changes, and this budget method at sea level can be applied in other areas around the world.

Using a statistical model, scientists developed sea level budgets for six sites and divided the sea level records into global, regional and local components. They have found that the rural decline of land – the downfall of the country since the Laurentian ice retreated thousands of years ago – dominates the budget of the past 2000 years. Other regional factors, such as ocean dynamics, and site-specific local processes, such as groundwater abstraction that helps sink soil, contribute much less to each budget and vary over time and per place.

The overall rate of sea level rise for each of the six sites in the 20th century (ranging from 2.6 to 3.6 millimeters per year, or about 1 to 1.4 inches per decade) was the fastest in 2000 years. Southern New Jersey had the fastest rate during the 2000-year period: 1.6 millimeters per year (about 0.63 inches per decade) at Edwin Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, Leeds Point, in Atlantic County and 1.5 millimeters per year (about 0.6 inches per decade) at Cape May Court House, Cape May County. Other sites include East River Marsh in Guilford, Connecticut; Pelham Bay, The Bronx, New York City; Cheesequake State Park in Old Bridge, New Jersey; and Roanoke Island in North Carolina.