Prominent scientists say Israel’s transformation from a COVID-19 hotspot to a vaccination success story underscores that any developed country can subdue the virus.
They estimate that a relatively small number of vaccinations are needed to take a country out of the crisis. Once half of the population over the age of 60 is vaccinated, authorities can expect a dramatic drop in cases, and it is safe to say that hospitals will not be overwhelmed.
The allegations come from authors of a detailed report, published as a peer-reviewed article in the journal Cell Reports Medicine, about how dire a COVID situation Israel had in the early weeks of the vaccination campaign, especially as the new, very contagious British variant was on the run.
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“Israel has had to deal with a number of factors that have made the situation here particularly difficult, and if it were to succeed despite all this, and we could achieve a rapid decline in cases, then any developed country can,” said Prof. Dan Yamin of Tel Aviv University told The Times of Israel.
An Israeli man receives a COVID-19 shot in a vaccination center in Jerusalem on March 11, 2021 (Yonatan Sindel / Flash90)
He said most other Western countries are in a better position as they begin or prepare their vaccination programs, and therefore can be especially confident when they see Israel’s infection, hospitalization and death rates fall to the bottom.
His data suggests that vaccines have quickly saved “hundreds of lives” in Israel, and his statistical analysis shows that the health service is rapidly being protected from collapse as a critical mass of more than 60 vaccines.
Prof Dan Yamin of Tel Aviv University (Moshe Baderashi)
‘The message to the world, especially European countries, the USA and developed countries in Asia, is that if you reach 50% coverage among adults over 60, you will see a dramatic decrease in severe cases and you can avoid hospitals being overwhelmed word. he said.
Yamin believes that vaccines can and should reach countries outside the developed world, but limits his comments to Western countries, as others do not have infrastructure for the distribution and administration of vaccines that would make a comparison with Israel relevant.
The study, reported by The Times of Israel in February before being peer-reviewed, is based on data from about 300,000 coronavirus tests conducted by health authorities. Data from these tests gave a clear picture of how the extra-infectious British variant spread rapidly, just as the vaccination action was accelerating.
The research found that it is 45 percent more transmissible than the common coronavirus in Israel, and that within two months of arriving in the country, it is responsible for 95% of cases of coronavirus – which is believed to be higher than in most countries except the United Kingdom.
Yamin, head of the Tel Aviv University’s epidemic modeling and analysis laboratory, noted that in addition to the dangers of this variant, Israel was also among the countries with the highest levels of new infections as the vaccination progressed.
“Israel is not only an extra portable variant, but also a very portable environment,” he said. ‘This is because there is properly concentrated housing, large young populations where asymptomatic infections are common and’ silent epidemics’ are possible and because of the large household.
“If you remember that most contamination takes place in households, the challenges facing Israel are clearer.”
A healthcare worker takes coronavirus test samples from Israelis on a ride through the complex in northern Israel, March 4, 2021. (David Cohen / Flash90)
He said vaccines in Israel had quickly overcome the multiple challenges facing the country and prevented the British variant from gaining a foothold among the vulnerable age group of more than 60, who had already been vaccinated.
Yamin’s research, together with prof. Ariel Munitz and prof. Moti Gerlitz, from the Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology of Tel Aviv University at the Sackler Faculty of Medicine, indicates that the British variant spread rapidly below the age of 60 in January. began to decline among the elderly by the middle of the month.
If it had penetrated the 60-plussers, it could have accelerated the pandemic in the age group that would probably respond badly to the virus.
The new research encourages Western countries that “their infection curve will break if they vaccinate,” Yamin said.
