British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has made a disturbing case announcement Friday around B 1.1.7, the variant of the coronavirus found last fall in the UK this past autumn has become widespread in the country and elsewhere. According to data recently analyzed by British scientists, B 1.1.7 is not only more transmissible than earlier strains, but can also be more likely to cause death. Although these conclusions are still tentative, it seems worthwhile to take them seriously.
The announcement was based on data reviewed by the UK’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, or NERVTAG, an independent group of scientists who helped shape the country’s pandemic response. Last December, their work on the study of B 1.1.7 gestol the consensus that the variant was more transmissible than previously distributed strains. Initially, their analysis found no evidence that B 1.1.7 caused serious diseases or deaths in the population as before. But that is no longer the case.
According to their new newspaper released On Friday, there are now several independent analyzes of the case data collected in recent weeks, indicating the same trend – an increase in people dying from B 1.1.7 compared to people infected with other strains of the virus. Although the exact numbers differ between groups, they suggest that B 1.1.7 is approximately 30% more likely to cause death than previous strains. Note that, while a 30% increase sounds great, the overall mortality rate will still be somewhere 1%.
“This is of course very worrying, given the speed at which this variant has surpassed circulation in different regions and our inability to control general transmission in many parts of the world,” Jason Kindrachuk, a virologist at the University of Manitoba in Canada who was not involved in the new research, told Gizmodo by email.
Like the authors of the new paper emphasize, there is limitations to their findings. The data used by British scientists to study the coronavirus only cover a small proportion of the total cases and deaths in the country on a given day. Some data sources, such as the outcomes of hospitalized patients, also take longer to collect than others. This may explain why hospitalization data specifically do not appear to be B.1.1.7 more lethal – the data may not be up to date to find the pattern. It is also possible that B.1.1.7 will bring more people to the hospital but not necessarily change the chance of survival of a hospitalized patient.
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One possible factor that may indirectly explain why B.1.1.7 looks more deadly– hospitals are overwhelmed by more cases caused by a more transmissible variant – however, does not seem to play an important role. One analysis by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine explained ‘covariates in hospital pressure’, as the number of available hospital beds for patients on a fan but found no material change in their conclusions. The increase in mortality rates was constant in different age groups, also, which further indicates a real higher risk for mortality of B.1.1.7 alone.
Seternal lands are now concerned about the rise of B.1.1.7 and others, similar variants. Would post B.1.1.7 outside the UK, as some experts have warned, it will certainly threaten to recent deterioration in cases and hospitalizations recently seen in some countries.
‘My immediate thoughts, natural, has on our long time to the toll of this diseaseresidents of Canada for care institutions and what this variant could mean for an already precarious situation, ”Kindrachuk said. Canada, like the US, is new experience a decrease in cases and hospitalizations. But outbreaks of variants similar to B 1.1.7 were already found in local nursing homes.
More work needs to be done to confirm these findings. But regardless of the conclusions, it remains absolutely important to do what we can to reduce the spread of the pandemic as quickly as possible. possible – including wearing masks, avoiding indoor socializing if possible, ato be vaccinated when you are eligible.