Satellite imagery shows growing growth in Ukraine

Other Russian military units on the Crimean peninsula include air forces, motorized rifle and armored units, attack helicopters, smoke generators, reconnaissance trucks, fixed equipment and a military hospital, according to the photos.

The forces and the deployment of Su-34, Su-30, Su-27, Su-25 and Su-24 aircraft elsewhere in the region, which are also depicted in the photos, strengthened Moscow’s political leverage around Ukraine, the current and former officials say.

“They appropriately harnessed the various elements of air force that would be needed to establish air power over the battlefield and directly support the ground troops,” said Philip Breedlove, a retired U.S. Air Force general who served as NATO’s top military commander. during Russian forces, said the Crimea seized and intervened in 2014 in eastern Ukraine.

Gen. Breedlove said the photos indicated that Russian units were not immediately ready to strike, but said Moscow had several options to take military action.

The director of the Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns, last week provided a similar assessment to Congress, pointing out that the Russian deployments may have been intended to intimidate the Ukrainian government and send a message to the Biden government .

“The build-up has reached the point that, you know, you can also provide the basis for a limited military invasion,” he said. Burns told the Senate Intelligence Committee. “So it’s not just the United States but also our allies that need to be taken very seriously.”

Biden administration officials have prepared options to provide lethal and non-lethal military assistance to Ukraine in the event of a Russian attack. According to the person familiar with the deliberations, there are anti-tank, anti-hip and aviation systems, although they have not yet been submitted to President Biden. The administration is also considering more economic sanctions against Russia, say administrative officials.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said last week that the country was conducting exercises in response to steps by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that “threatened Russia” and accused the Ukrainian authorities of trying to fuel tensions.

The satellite photos were taken between March 27 and April 16 by Maxar Technologies,

a commercial satellite and imaging company that provides extensive images to the US and other Western governments. Dan Jablonsky, the company’s CEO, said he was disclosing the unclassified photos because of a commitment to transparency, but the U.S. government did not ask for it.

“I think it removes the uncertainty and doubt about what is really happening in a fairly critical region of the world,” he said. Jablonsky said.

US officials estimate that there are currently as many as 80,000 Russians in Crimea and near Ukraine. This is almost double the Russian force deployed there about four weeks ago, officials said. The head of the European Union’s foreign policy, Josep Borrell, set the number at more than 100,000, which he said would make it greater than the power the Russians deployed when they occupied Crimea in 2014 and deployed troops to the east. from Ukraine.

According to one US military official, the Russian force currently contains 48 tactical groups of the battalion, each consisting of several hundred soldiers and officers. However, US intelligence has not yet identified all the logistical capabilities and support units that would normally be used for a significant attack across the border into Ukraine, including ammunition supplies and deployable hospitals, the official said.

Su-34 planes at the Morozovsk base east of Ukraine have been moved to the flight path, satellite photos show, a move that indicates a higher state of readiness.

“It’s not a demonstration. This is preparation for a major offensive, ”said Phillip Karber, president of the Potomac Foundation, an American think tank that has traveled extensively to the military front in Ukraine. “I do not predict an attack, but within two weeks it will be an option, according to the Russians.”

Other experts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be trying to pressure Ukraine to resume water supplies to Crimea, which the Kyiv authorities cut off after the Kremlin annexed the peninsula.

“We can not rule out that this build-up may be a coercive tool that Putin is using to open Ukraine’s North Crimean water channel,” said Glen Howard, president of the Jamestown Foundation, a conservative research center. “It’s a lot of military capabilities, and we do not know which direction the Russians will take.”

In Ukraine, the build-up of Russian troops has left many speculating about the intentions of Mr. Putin spent seven years in a conflict that claimed more than 14,000 lives.

‘In a few weeks from now, they are close to sufficient combat readiness to pursue a military escalation. “According to our estimates, their combined military might reach more than 120,000 troops so far,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told the Journal in a temporary statement. “We do not know if Putin will decide to attack, but he will definitely be ready to do so.”

Oleg Zhdanov, a reserve colonel in the Ukrainian army and military analyst, said the fact that much of the build-up took place in public and was captured on social media was a sign that Moscow’s main goal was politics. “Putin is using it to cause a wave of panic,” he said. Zhdanov said.

The situation may be somewhat fluid. The satellite photos show that a squadron of Su-25 “Frogfoot” aircraft and some electronic war vehicles observed on Maxar satellite images at an air base in Astrakhan, Russia in mid-April, departed for another airport by On 16 April the Russian news agency TASS said that Su-25s had arrived in Crimea.

Mr. Biden, who met last week with Mr. Putin spoke, urging Russia to ease tensions with Ukraine. Mr. Biden announced new sanctions against Moscow last week for interfering in the election and the cyber attack on SolarWinds. Moscow has denied involvement in the coup, and Russian officials have repeatedly denied interfering in the US election.

Mr. Biden said he is not keen on escalating, but that he is prepared to act strongly if necessary.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke to his Russian counterpart, Nikolai Patrushev, on Monday. According to US and Russian statements on the conversation, the two officials have the prospect of a summit meeting later this year between Mr. Biden and mr. Putin discusses. In none of the statements was the Russian military build-up specifically mentioned in Crimea and near Ukraine.

—Gordon Lubold in Washington and James Marson in Brussels contributed to this article.

Write to Michael R. Gordon at [email protected] and Georgi Kantchev at [email protected]