TAMPA, Fla. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and DeMaurice Smith, executive director of the NFL Players Association, will address reporters ahead of Super Bowl LV on Thursday afternoon – the culmination of what by any measure was a remarkably successful 2020 season, without games amid the COVID 19-pandemic canceled.
Behind the scenes, work is already underway among the league, union and clubs to prepare for a whole new set of challenges and unknowns, while COVID continues to interrupt business as usual in 2021.
Here’s a look at some important issues, based on recent discussions with sources:
The NFL and NFLPA began preliminary negotiations on the 2021 salary cap last month. Some team officials believe (and certainly hope) that the limit will eventually land closer to $ 185 million per club – if not a little higher – than the minimum amount of $ 175 million the parties agreed last summer when they went for empty and mostly empty stadiums.
The league on Tuesday did not give its annual projection for the ceiling at the deferred labor seminar, nor did it commit to spreading the impact of an unprecedented revenue shortfall of more than $ 1 million in 2020 over the next few years. (The ceiling of each year is based on revenue forecasts for the next season, as well as an “observation” of the previous year’s forecast. If the parties did not agree to the $ 175 million floor for 2021 as part of an overall package on COVID-related economic matters, spreading this year’s deficit into future years, would have cut the season’s $ 198.2 million per club much further.)
Chiefs owner Clark Hunt told reporters this week that the final number will only be “hours before the start of the league year” on March 17. More realistic is that teams can figure out the number just days before the free agent negotiation period begins on March 15th. , with the league and union needing all the time to assess the climate and budget for the impact of at least one new media deal, which must be finalized before the NFL moves the expected move to a regular season of 17 games in 2021.
Some teams have found some local revenue streams for 2020, but it is not expected to have a major impact on the 2021 branch. And there are still many unknowns.
The biggest unknown revenue forecast for 2021: Will stadiums be full in September?
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in early December he expected it would “probably be until the end of summer” before sports stadiums will be able to open again. And the rate of vaccinations so far at the national level has lagged behind in the initial projections.
When I met the doctor’s chief medical officer, dr. Asked about Fauci’s statement and the biggest obstacle to the NFL stadiums this fall, Allen Sills replied: “I’m sure he’s right” and stressed the safety and efficacy of the vaccines (which the Promote NFL by inviting 7,500 vaccinated health workers to Super Bowl LV, while also believing the stock will increase significantly.
Although the general population had not yet reached herd immunity by September, most teams could probably find 65,000 card-driven supporters willing to buy tickets. The problem with the approach is that it also means that someone who cannot or does not want to be vaccinated should say that they cannot come, especially not if those people are season ticket holders.
Vaccinations, protocols and rules change
The NFL cannot unilaterally require players to be vaccinated as soon as they are eligible, as this would mean a change in working conditions subject to negotiation. Ideally, education will encourage most players to do it themselves, although it is worth noting that a relatively small percentage of the recommendations of medical experts from the league and union comply with flu shots this past fall. .
Roger Goodell and DeMaurice Smith have each repeatedly said that the NFL will not strike a chord when it comes to vaccinating players and other staff. Prior to that, during a call with agents on January 19, Smith told agents there was no “rosy prospect” of widespread vaccinations of players in the coming months and “we are planning for an off-season that looks a lot like the last season” of organized team activities, mini-camps, etc., which go virtually.
Goodell has already expressed support for permanent changes to the rules for off-season work, such as more virtual training and a longer lead-up period at the start of training camp. Some other annual rule changes that were popular with clubs, such as extended practice groups, also received strong support.
All this is subject to negotiations with the union, just like the COVID protocols that developed during the 2020 season, where all the teams were placed in the so-called intensive protocols by mid-November, extending the mask requirements and other restrictions has.
It’s all a bit unpredictable until the final cap number is known, but every team official says free agency will not be normal. The first wave will probably still be paid for, but then the bottom can fall, leading to many one-year deals.
The further the cap drops, the more veterans can be cut, turning it into a buyer’s market, especially among the teams that prefer to sign a “street” agent anyway to help with the compensatory draft formula.
There is also a sentiment that fewer franchise labels are being applied, and certainly less than the 14 applied a year ago, as teams may be reluctant to carry large one-year numbers on their guard in hopes of making long-term deals before the July to do. 15 deadline.
For the time being, the draft is running from April 29 to May 1 in Cleveland. But all the work of clubs leading to it will again be abnormal.
The annual reconnaissance combine, as we know, is out. Private training sessions, visits to facilities, dinners and film sessions with draft prospects are prohibited. Medical exams are limited. The only personal access teams that have prospects are the recent all-star matches and the upcoming pro days, where each club will be limited to three representatives on campus – or less if state and local regulations require it in some cases can also restrict contact with players.
Like a year ago, teams would log on to FaceTime for many hours and probably set up a player or two without ever shaking their hand.