Offers or no offers? This is the question facing teams that need a young quarterback facing the NFL concept in 2021.
From 2016 to 2018, eight teams traded to draft a quarter in the top 12: Bills (Josh Allen), Jets (Sam Darnold), Rams (Jared Goff), Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), Cardinals (Josh Rosen), Bears (Mitchell Trubisky), Texans (Deshaun Watson) and Eagles (Carson Wentz).
In the last two drafts, however, there were only two deals of any kind in the top half of the first round, and none of them were for quarterbacks (LB Devin Bush, Steelers, overall 10th pick in 2019; OT Tristan Wirfs , Buccaneers, 13th overall pick in 2020).
This decline in early transactions could be the start of a long period of time, as teams appear reluctant to give up three or four premiums for a prospect. It’s also possible that the non-playoff teams that are usually interested in moving upwards have been waiting to see if their current quarter will develop – or maybe just not interested in raising big draft capital for Justin Herbert, Daniel Jones and / or Price do not give. Tua Tagovailoa.
It will once again be shocking to see that the trend without trading ends this year as there is a long list of quarterback needy teams and a lot about the available QBs. For this four-round projection, however, I play out the scenario that reflects the concepts of 2019 and 2020. The Jets, Falcons and Panthers end up future signal callers in the top-eight picks while staying, but there are five deals in this spot, including one for a quarterback in the middle of the first round.
The compensatory choices for free agent in this exercise are based on the projections of my colleague Lance Zierlein from April last year. The official list will be made available by the league in the coming weeks. At the end of the third round, four additional choices were added for franchises that lose minority workers as head coach or general manager positions in the league.
The Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff trade between the Lions and Rams, which included LA to send a third round of 2021 to Detroit, is set off in this spot. The agreement that moves Carson Wentz from Philadelphia to Indianapolis for a third-round pick in 2021 and a conditional pick in 2022 is also included. The deals do not become official before the start of the new league year (March 17).