SAG winner analysis: Chadwick Boseman, Viola Davis for the Oscars?

The SAG Awards collaborated with their winners and began with the most diverse major Oscar winners in the 93-year history of the Academy Awards.

The celebration of the 27th annual ceremony, voted on by the approximately 160,000 staff members of actors, was unveiled on Sunday night during the one-hour recording via Zoom.

Aaron Sorkin’s “The Trial of the Chicago 7” achieves the top prize of the evening for casting ensemble, which is the first major victory of the awards season. In the scene categories, Chadwick Boseman and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom stars won and Viola Davis won the leading categories for male and female actors. Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”) and Yuh-Jung Youn (“Minari”) landed the male and female supporting statues.

It was the first time in SAG history that all four categories for film scene went to color actors.

Boseman’s posthumous victory was the first place in any leading category at the SAG Awards, which took him one step closer to Oscar. In addition to winning Critics Choice and the Golden Globe, next week’s BAFTAs could further strengthen their frontrunner status, even if Anthony Hopkins (‘The Father’) has the home field advantage across the dam. If Boseman does win the BAFTA, you have to go back to 2002, when Russell Crowe (‘A Beautiful Mind’) lost the Oscar to Denzel Washington (‘Training Day’), to losing a nominee after taking so many predecessors home has. It was by chance that it was also the year that Halle Berry (‘Monster’s Ball’) became the first and (still only) black woman to win the lead role category, bringing us to the enigma that is the best actress of 2021.

Davis’ victory of SAG, her third individual for film appearances, makes her the fourth individual actress winner of the television awards, an unprecedented event for lead actress in 27 years. The Globes starred with Andra Day (‘The United States vs. Billie Holiday’) in the drama and Rosamund Pike (‘I Care A Lot’) in the comedy, while Carey Mulligan (‘Promising Young Woman’) did the Critics Choice Awarded.

However, when it comes to winning both actor and actress during the Oscars, it is not easy. The last time this happened was 23 years ago, in 1998, when Jack Nicholson and Helen Hunt both triumphed for ‘As Good As It Gets’, a film that was also nominated for Best Picture. “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” is not.

And the BAFTAs will not make things clearer. Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”) and Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”) are the only best nominees for the Oscars.

For Kaluuya, his victory is expected, and together with Boseman, it seems to be the only bet in the main categories at the Academy. And just like Boseman, if Kaluuya wins BAFTA, where his closest rival Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”) is not nominated, no supporting actor lost the Oscar when he competed with BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and SAG .

For the best sidekick, Youn may have advanced as a frontrunner in the category. With ‘Minari’ winning six nominations, she could serve as the winner to represent the film, and, more importantly, she is only the second female Asian acting winner in history, after Miyoshi Umeki in ‘Sayonara’ (1957). It’s not all for the critics’ darling, but Maria Bakalova (‘Borat Subsequent Moviefilm’) is still a factor to consider. The two claim a victory from Critics Choice and will take on the fight at BAFTA for the last time, where neither of their rivals is nominated in the supporting actress. It’s safe to say: whoever wins at BAFTA is likely to win at the Oscars.

Judging by the SAG winners, and their translation to Oscar winners, in 27 years, they were selected seven times, which was an average of three in a given year. It is safe to assume that someone is missing, but who and in what category?

The 2001 award year is the only time two black actors have won the leading statuettes during the Oscars. Denzel Washington (‘Training Day’) drew an incredible upset over Russell Crowe (‘A Beautiful Mind’) and Halle Berry (‘Monster’s Ball’) was also the first black actress to win the category. Without a BAFTA or a SAG nom and the only representation for her film during the Oscars, Day has the hardest mountain to climb. No leading show in the modern era has ever won the Oscar without BAFTA and SAG. In fact, only two actors have ever won without the two bodies: Marcia Gay Harden in “Pollock” (2001) and Regina King in “As Beale Street Could Talk” (2018) in the last 20 years of actress winners. Only Charlize Theron (“Monster”) and Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”) were the only nominees for their films, which won their respective awards seasons.

You have to wonder, are enough voters going to take the time to watch Day’s movie before Oscar night, especially in the craft races where about 63% of the voters are? Davis’ film is about to win four of its five nominations (actor, actress, costumes and makeup). Does it become a ‘voiced’ form of voice? Could “Ma Rainey” also be the most award-winning film of the night? No film that has not been nominated as the best has won the victory in the history of the Academy?

Finally, with the SAG ensemble and the best picture of the Oscars, the two have equaled just 12 of the past 26 years. The last five were “Parasite” (2019), “Spotlight” (2015), “Birdman” (2014), “Argo” (2012) and “The King’s Speech” (2010). It is noteworthy that Chloé Zhao’s “Nomadland” and Fennell’s “Promising Young Woman” were not nominated for ensemble. Only “Braveheart” (1995), “The Shape of Water” (2017) and “Green Book” (2018) won a picture without the nom.

While this year the Oscar nominees presented the most diverse history, are we on our way to an everyday series of actors of color? If Zhao director wins and takes her film, it’s a scenario that would not even have been imagined ten years ago.

Predictions of the Oscars (all categories)