National overview
How to start a war
Wars often stem from uncertainty. When strong countries look weak, truly weaker ones take risks that they would not otherwise do. Sloppy braggadocio and serial promises of self-control can also cause wars. Empty, sticky talk can unnecessarily supplement attackers. But oral utopian bromides convince bullies that their targets are too sophisticated to counter aggression. Sometimes the announcement of a “new peace process” without any ability to bring new concessions or pressure only evokes false hope and anger. Every new US president is tested to see if the United States can still protect friends such as Europe, Japan, South Korea and Israel. And will the new commander-in-chief deter US enemies Iran and North Korea – and prevent China and Russia from absorbing their neighbors? Joe Biden, and those around him, seem determined to upset the peace they have inherited. Shortly after Donald Trump left office, Vladimir Putin began gathering troops on the Ukrainian border and threatening to attack. Putin had earlier concluded that Trump was dangerously unpredictable, and perhaps best not provoked. After all, the Trump administration has taken out Russian mercenaries in Syria. This has increased defense spending and increased sanctions. The Trump administration flooded the world with cheap oil to Russia’s concern. It withdrew from asymmetric missile treaties with Russia. It sold sophisticated weapons to the Ukrainians. The Russians concluded that Trump could do anything, so they waited for another president before testing America again. In contrast, Biden often speaks defiantly – while carrying a twig. He called Putin a “murderer” for nothing. And he warned that the Russian dictator would “pay a price” because he allegedly interfered in the 2020 election. Unfortunately, Biden’s bomb blast follows four years of a conspiracy of Russian conspiracy, fueled by a collection of dossiers paid for by the Democratic National Committee and the campaign of the 2016 Democratic presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton. Biden and others claim that Trump, in the words of Barack Obama’s former director of national intelligence, James Clapper, was a ‘Russian asset’. If Biden wants to deliver a nation with more than 6,000 nuclear weapons, he certainly does not want to violently support his rhetoric. Bidding could potentially lower the Pentagon budget. He also seems to have forgotten that Trump was charged with allegedly endangering Ukraine when he sold weapons to Ukraine. While Biden speaks loudly to Putin, his administration is humiliated in series by China. Chinese diplomats clothed their American counterparts at a recent meeting in Anchorage, Alaska. They happily reclaimed the domestic left’s hotplate that a racist America has no moral authority to criticize China. If Trump was unpredictably blunt, Biden is too often predictably confused. And he looks fragile and sends the message to autocracies that America’s commander – in – chief is not completely in control. Biden did not, as he promised, demand transparency from China about the origin of the COVID-19 virus in Wuhan. By summer, the plague could have killed 600,000 Americans. More disturbingly, as Russia places troops on the Ukrainian border, China flies into Taiwanese airspace and tests its defenses – and the extent to which the United States cares. For half a century, U.S. foreign policy has sought to ensure that Russia was no closer to China than to the United States. Now it seems the two dictatorships have almost been added to the hip, as each is investigating the American response or the lack thereof. Not surprisingly, North Korea resumed firing missiles over the Sea of Japan at the end of March. In the Middle East, Biden inherited a relatively quiet landscape. Arab nations have historically made peace with Israel. Both sides were deterring Iran – funded terrorists. Iran itself was stunned by sanctions and recession. His arch-terrorist brain, General Qasem Soleimani, was killed by an American drone. Under Trump, the United States abandoned the Iran nuclear deal, which was a precondition for certain Iranian acquisition of a nuclear weapon. The theocracy in Tehran, the main sponsor of terror in the world, was in its most fragile state in its 40-year existence. US diplomats are now expressing bizarre interest in restoring cordial relations with Iran, reloading the Iran deal and abandoning sanctions against the regime. If all that happens, Iran is likely to get a bomb soon. More importantly, Iran may conclude that the United States has distanced itself from Israel and moderate Arab regimes. One of two dangers will then arise. Either Iran will feel that it can increase its aggression, or its enemies will conclude that they have no choice but to take out all Iran’s nuclear facilities. It would go well with Biden to remember old American diplomatic proverbs if he speaks softly while carrying a big stick, keeps China and Russia apart, is no better friend (or worse enemy) and leaves sleeping dogs lying. © 2021 The Center for American Greatness