Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, during his annual state of the nation address in Moscow, Russia, on Wednesday, January 15, 2020.
Bloomberg
Russian President Vladimir Putin will address the nation on Wednesday in his annual State of the Nation speech, a speech that will take place amid growing tensions with Ukraine and a hunger strike by dissident Alexei Navalny.
In the past week, there have been further reports that Russian troops are gathering at the border with Ukraine and possibly preparing for military action.
Navalny, in a hunger strike in a Russian prison, became dangerously ill and was transferred to a prison hospital. The news prompted US warnings that there would be “consequences” if Russia killed Navalny in prison.
In addition, Russia is accused of orchestrating an attack on a Czech armistice in 2014, and the Czech Republic suspended 18 Russian diplomats this week. Russia denies that two of its military intelligence agents – the same men allegedly carried out a nerve agent attack on a former spy in Britain in 2018 – carried out the Czech attack, but the news nevertheless contributed to the negative news flow around Putin’s Russia.
Last week, the US imposed more sanctions on Russia over the interference in the 2020 election, a cyber attack on the US government and corporate networks, the annexation and occupation of Crimea in Ukraine, and human rights violations.
Whether Putin will discuss such recent events in his annual speech on Wednesday is uncertain. Although, as Daragh McDowell, head of Europe and chief analyst in Russia at Verisk Maplecroft, remarked on Tuesday, the speech was often ‘the detailed piece for important policy announcements’.
The address usually covers a wide range of topics, from economics and defense to education and family life. The coronavirus pandemic is also likely to be on the agenda, with the virus hitting the country hard over the past year.
Russia’s plans for foreign policy and geopolitical relations are likely to be closely monitored by experts, particularly with regard to neighboring Ukraine.
Ukraine
Russia’s bystanders are particularly surprised by reports that the country has joined forces on the border with Ukraine, and EU foreign affairs on Tuesday estimated the size of the deployment at 100,000 troops.
“Just last week, military analysts downplayed the size of the Russian deployment, but it now looks reasonable,” Timothy Ash, a senior emerging market strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in a note on Tuesday.
“(You have to) ask yourself why Putin feels the need to put such a large force ‘in the theater’, as it goes much further than sabbath. “Let’s not forget it. Why bother if nothing serious is really planned?” he asked.
Ash questions what Putin’s strategic goals could be in Ukraine, a country with which Russia has been tense since the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
“Is it the assurance of water supply for Crimea, (a) the bridge to Crimea, or are Ukrainian troops being beaten so badly that the government in Kiev is accusing them of a peace that gives Russia lasting strategic dominance over Ukraine?” Ash asked.
Navalny
The 44-year-old Navalny was transferred to a prison hospital at the weekend as his health deteriorated during a hunger strike he presented in protest of his treatment in prison. He said he was denied urgent medical treatment, a claim denied by the Russian authorities.
Navalny is in jail after a Russian court sentenced him to more than two years in February for parole offenses, which he said were politically motivated.
Over the weekend, his doctor warned that Navalny was at risk of a heart attack or kidney failure. The doctors could not visit Navalny in prison, but said medical tests provided by his family showed he was dangerously ill and that he “could die at any moment.”
The US government warned the Russian government not to allow Navalny to die in custody, adding that there would be ‘consequences’.
Read more: USA is upset about the deteriorating health of Kremlin critic Navalny
Navalny’s team on Wednesday called for massive protests, which are likely to cause clashes with police.
Verow Maplecroft, McDowell, noted that tensions between Russia and the West have been steadily rising since the beginning of the year, driven by the more confrontational policies of the Biden government and the return of Navalny.
“Navalny’s captivity and the rapid deterioration of his health have both fueled Russia’s domestic opposition and become an international PR headache for the Kremlin, with European governments under pressure to take a tougher line towards Moscow,” he said. he said.