U.S. officials are also concerned about the long-term goals of the Kremlin ally in the war-torn state. One intelligence official notes that the trench is a sign that Wagner, who according to the official has his largest global presence in Libya, ‘wants to move in the long term’.
The trench, which stretches tens of kilometers south from the populated coastal areas around Sirte in the direction of the Wagner-controlled fortress Al-Jufra, can be seen on satellite images and is reinforced by a series of extensive fortresses.
CNN contacted the Russian government for comment and received no response.
The trench and fortresses appear to be blocking or stopping a land attack on LNA-controlled areas in the east, which runs through the populated coastal areas of Libya that have seen the most clashes since the fall of Moammar Gadhafi’s government in 2011.
The GNA posted images of excavators and trucks creating the ditch and curb running alongside, saying the work was underway as recently as this month.
The trench, the US intelligence official said, was another reason: “We see no intention or movement by Turkish or Russian forces to abide by the UN-mediated agreement. It has the potential for an already fragile peace process and ceasefire. to derail. a very difficult year ahead. ‘
Open source monitoring says it has mapped a series of more than 30 defensive positions in the desert and hills that stretch for about 70 kilometers.
Satellite images of Maxar apparently show both the trench stretching along a highway and the fortifications dug by Wagner mercenaries and their contractors.
Images show a build-up of defenses around the Jufra air base, and also the Brak airfield further south, where apparent radar defenses have been installed and reinforced.
GNA Defense Secretary Salaheddin Al-Namroush told CNN: “I do not think anyone will dig a trench today and make this fortification, leave soon.”
Claudia Gazzini, of the International Crisis Group, told CNN that the trench had been “indeed worrying” over the past few weeks and that discussions about it had “spread among diplomats.” This is ongoing and indicates that Moscow would like its presence Libya confirms. ‘
Analysts have said the Kremlin would like to increase its military presence and influence in the Mediterranean, along NATO’s southern bottom, with the added bonus of involvement in and profits from Libya’s oil industry.
Gazzini added that there were repeated reports that both parties continued to maintain and build up a presence of foreign mercenaries, while the GNA was also accused of strengthening its stockpile of military equipment, under a public agreement. with Turkey to support its army.
The US intelligence official said the number of mercenaries on both the GNA and the LNA side was relatively stable: an estimated 10,000 were in present-day Libya, according to an AFRICOM report in September on the issue.
The US official said the Libyan deployment of about 2,000 foreign mercenaries of Wagner – who are mostly Russians or former citizens of the Soviet Union – is the largest global company.
An LNA spokesman, Major General Khaled al-Mahjoub, confirmed the existence of the trenches to CNN, but described them as ‘temporary’ sand barriers and trenches, in an open area … for defense and combat . ‘ He denied the presence of 2,000 Wagner mercenaries, saying there were consultants who were “announced a long time ago”.
But a confidential UN report released by CNN in June described the Wagner fighters as an effective force multiplier. ‘
Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin said there were no Russians in Libya, but if they are there, they do not represent Russia. Russia has always denied using mercenaries to fight for it.
Despite an arms embargo, by 2020 UN inspectors have recorded dozens of Russian flights to Libya.
The US African order has publicly called on Russia for enlargement, saying it is similar to actions in Syria.
In June, the head of the defense committee in the main house of the Russian parliament, Viktor Bondarev, said the US claim was ‘stupid’ and suggested that it was old Soviet planes from somewhere else in Africa.
A Western diplomat with knowledge of arms movements to Libya said Russian flights to the country had dropped from their peak of 93 in August to just over a dozen monthly by the end of 2020. ‘ They just keep going on the ground, ‘he said. said and added that Turkey flies in similar numbers.
Turkey’s army is open about its desire for a permanent presence and posts images of its army that the GNA ‘Base Training’ gave last week.
“This is a comprehensive effort,” the U.S. official said. “They are building facilities and bringing in personnel and equipment. They have the HAWK anti-aircraft missile batteries, 3D [KALAKAN] radar. ‘
Satellite images of the Al-Khoms port show small adjustments suggesting it may be ready for a longer-term Turkish naval resistance, which the GNA’s al-Namroush has denied.
A senior Turkish security official told CNN that they “continue to provide military training, cooperation and advice … according to the GNA’s needs and demands.”
The thousands of Syrian mercenaries who flew and supported Turkey into Libya have also been used elsewhere, the U.S. intelligence official revealed. During Turkey’s support to the Azerbaijani government during their recent conflict with Armenia, planes transported hundreds of Syrian mercenaries to Azerbaijan to help Turkey’s ally in their war with Armenia, the US official said.
‘It did appear that there was some movement of some of the Syrian mercenary forces towards the conflict in [Nagorno Karabakh]. Smaller numbers, in the fewer hundreds, “the official added.
The Russian-backed Wagner troops are meant to give Moscow influence, but not accountable, analysts said. Jalel Harchaoui, a senior fellow at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, said Wagner’s hire forces are “by definition disposable” – and a “power that does not exist,” according to the official statement from the Russian state. means it is not formidable, intimidating and fairly effective, ‘but that it offers the greatest flexibility for the Kremlin.
Gazzini added: “Russian policy in Libya is opaque – what Russia wants to do. From evidence on the ground, it sounds as if they want to consolidate their influence, or find a way out.”
Yet U.S. officials added that the Russian build-up now involves significant personnel and advanced equipment, but one that presents ethical concerns. “The fourth-generation fighter jets and Pantsir missile systems are managed by less-skilled, poorly trained Wagner mercenaries,” the official said.
“There are complex challenges in Libya, including al-Qaida and ISIS, and mercenaries with their poor training, experience and lack of respect for human rights and international law make those weapons systems in those hands the most worrying.”
Although Wagner’s presence and trench offer an advantage to LNA chief general Haftar, the Russian presence seems more on Moscow’s agenda than Haftar’s support, analysts said.
The Western diplomat said Haftar needed an ongoing conflict in Libya to maintain relevance. “He becomes irrelevant overnight when the conflict is over,” the diplomat said. “And if it does not end on his terms, he becomes vulnerable to allegations of war crimes and so on.”