- Putin ordered thousands of troops to the Russian border with Ukraine and set up a sea blockade.
- It looks like he intends to invade.
- Or at least that’s what he has want all to think.
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Russian warships and attack aircraft carried out aggressive exercises off the coast of Ukraine this week, adding to fears of a blockade of concern that the movement of more than 100,000 troops could telegraph a Russian invasion.
In recent weeks, Russia has shifted an enormous amount of offensive military capabilities – from elite units to modern weapons to strike aircraft – to military regions along the border with Ukraine, where Russian-speaking “People’s Republics” have been fighting. Kiev for independence since 2014.
The big, unanswered question: Will Putin invade Ukraine again? Or is he just preparation Ukraine to fall into a show of force designed to keep the world on edge?
The context is that Russia has done this before. It seized the former Ukrainian territory of Crimea in 2014 and lost the Donbas region in the same year by Russia-backed separatists. Since then, Ukraine and Russia have had a recurring armed conflict along the border. An invasion into the heart of Ukraine, however, would be a significant increase in fighting on the eastern flank of Europe.
“He clearly intends to make everyone believe that he is on the verge of invading Ukraine.”
“It would not make sense for Putin to invade Ukraine now, but he is clearly aiming to make everyone believe that he is on the verge of invading Ukraine,” a Baltic intelligence official said. watch. “It seems that the units that are ‘practicing’ have been specifically selected for their offensive capabilities, and the amount of logistics and support that is developing behind the units is a further cause for concern.”
Russia has repeatedly attacked the recent steps taken by the Ukrainian government to block pro-Russian TV stations and sanctioning oligarchs close to Putin, claiming that the steps are part of a Ukrainian-American plan to resist pro-Russian To crush Russian breakaway republics.
On Monday night, Russia announced that it would restrict the freedom of movement of foreign military vessels in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, a statement that began immediately US State Department condemnation, which warned that the move was tantamount to threatening a naval blockade by a US ally.
“If he is convinced that there is a threat, he can act”
A Ukrainian memo leaked to Axios accuses the Russians of restricting access to nearly a quarter of the Black Sea, a clear violation of international maritime law.
The memorandum of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense speculates that Russian aggression may be intended as a political diversion from the upcoming legislative election or as a threat to force Ukraine to change some anti-Russian policies. But a military intelligence official based at NATO headquarters in Brussels warned of a breach of intent between the West and Putin.
“Putin believes very clearly that there is a conspiracy to break up Russia’s influence in places like Ukraine, Georgia, Poland, etc.,” the official said. “There’s always a fear that when everyone says they do not believe Putin is on the verge of invading Ukraine – and to be honest, I do not do that either – that he is being misread “If he is convinced that there is a threat, he can act.”