Tens of thousands of Russian troops marching near the Ukrainian border, convoys of tanks and a deadly escalation in the grinding trenches war in eastern Ukraine.
These storm clouds on the eastern flank of Europe are causing great concern in Washington and across the continent.
“We are now seeing the largest concentration of Russian forces on Ukraine’s borders since 2014,” Foreign Minister Antony Blinken said on Tuesday after flying to NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. “This is a major concern not only for Ukraine but also for the United States.”
In a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin later in the day, President Joe Biden declared Washington’s unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity ‘and called on Russia to ease tensions. a reading of the White House said.
Western officials and experts are now trying to decipher what Moscow is possibly planning: test Putin Biden’s battle – or is he actually trying to provoke a fresh military conflict on the edge of Europe?
“The optimistic assessment is that it is intended to intimidate Ukraine,” said Michael Kofman, a senior research scientist at CNA, a research group in Virginia. “The pessimistic assessment, which I think is a lower probability, but still worth considering, is that Russia is actually spoiling for a fight and that they want to lure Ukraine into a miscalculation.”
Russia and Ukraine have been embroiled in conflict since 2014, when Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and began supporting separatists in the east of the country. Since then, that war has raged and it has cost about 14,000 lives despite a series of shaky ceasefires.
But since March, experts say they are seeing something new.
According to Western governments and independent experts monitoring these ways, Russia has begun sending thousands of troops, tanks, artillery and other units to Crimea and regions along its 1,200-mile border with Ukraine.
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Russian troops number 40,000 in Crimea and another 40,000 in other border regions, Iuliia Mendel, spokeswoman for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said on Monday.
Since the Russian military is estimated to have about 800 to 900,000 troops, “it would be about 10 percent of the Russian military’s total manpower,” according to Rob Lee, a former U.S. Marine who now has military deployments at King’s War Studies Department follow. College London.
Russia says these movements are “training missions”, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday. But experts say they do not fit the usual pattern for these war games. Russian military officials did not provide the normal level of detail or warning.
“They are deliberately making their intention here unclear,” Lee said.
Meanwhile, the fragile ceasefire that is simmering in the Donbas conflict has worsened, with more than 30 Ukrainian soldiers dead already this year, compared to 49 in 2020, Ukraine says.
In response, the US European commando has raised its threat level to the highest available, reports the New York Times. And he plans to send two warships to the Black Sea, according to war, which controls the passage therein. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby declined to comment on both of these actions during recent briefings.
“If Russia acts recklessly,” Blinken told NBC News’ Meet the Press on Sunday, “there will be consequences.”
After Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with Blinken on Tuesday, the Russian build-up took place not only along the border with Ukraine but also along the border of the democratic world.
Opponent versus partner
The problem for these allies is that it is still unclear what Russia is trying to do – much less how the West can react.
“The composite power is big and heavy and can go deep and do some ugly things to Ukraine,” said Vladimir Frolov, a former Russian diplomat. Is this what Russia intends to do? “I think an honest answer to your question would be, ‘I have no idea,'” he said.
Russia says it is free to move troops internally as it pleases.
“Russia has never been a threat to anyone and does not pose a threat,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday.
The Kremlin has tried to turn the story on its head, accusing the US and NATO of being responsible for raising the temperature.
“There is absolutely nothing US ships can do near our shores,” Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Russian news outlets. “We warn the United States that it would be better for them to stay far away from Crimea and our Black Coast. It would be for their own good.”
Ryabkov referred to the US as an ‘adversary’ – a word the US uses to describe Russia, but a clear shift from Russia’s preferred term ‘partner’ when referring to the US
Many experts believe a Russian military offensive is not impossible, but unlikely; it would be expensive for Putin and it is unclear what he would earn. The build-up was slow and conspicuous, while a true invasion would be swift and covered.
According to these observers, it is more likely that Russia is trying to intimidate Ukraine, perhaps to gain leverage in the stagnant peace talks over the Donbas conflict.
Putin is also sending a message to Biden’s European allies and Ukraine, according to Fabrice Pothier, a senior adviser at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London think tank.
Biden used a stricter rhetoric toward Putin compared to President Donald Trump, and last month the US announced $ 125 million in military aid to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine renews calls to join NATO, something the alliance promised in 2008 but strongly opposes Russia.
“Putin is testing what President Biden’s Russia-Ukraine policy really consists of,” said Pothier, the former head of NATO’s policy planning. “Is the US prepared to go so far as to provide indirect or direct military support to Ukrainian troops? Is the US basically prepared to do some escalation with Russia?”
Alexander Smith reports from London, Matthew Bodner from Moscow, and Abigail Williams and Mosheh Gains report from Washington.