Alexey Navalny speaks on January 28 via a video link at a regional court in Moscow.
Photographer: Alexander Nemenov / AFP / Getty Images
Photographer: Alexander Nemenov / AFP / Getty Images
Prison opposition leader Alexey Navalny is stepping up his fight with President Vladimir Putin, citing new mass protests this past weekend as the Russian leader’s popularity declines.
Putin’s confidence rating dropped to 53%, according to a January 22-24 poll conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation, which was the day tens of thousands of Russians gathered in cities across the country demanding Navalny’s release. This was the lowest that the Foundation, which regularly works for the Kremlin, has reported since it began putting the question in form in 2013, according to its website.
“You can not scare the tens of millions of people who have been robbed by the authorities,” Navalny told a Moscow court on Thursday via a video link from the jail where he is currently being held for 30 days. “I’m glad to see more and more people see that the law and the truth are on our side, and that we are the majority.”
Authorities are already warning against participating in Sunday’s protests, and most Navalny assistants who have not yet been jailed have been admitted this week and are facing a range of criminal charges. Still, they are concerned about the scale of the protests and are looking for ways to cool popular discontent that has simmered amid the slumps and coronavirus restrictions, three people close to the government said.
Crowds gather in support of Alexey Navalny during a demonstration in Moscow on January 23.
Photographer: Andrey Rudakov / Bloomberg
An avalanche
“Navalny has started an avalanche,” said Evgeny Gontmakher, a leading Russian economist. “People were already dissatisfied with their income and the pandemic.”
The Russian leader (68) has been in power for more than two decades, the longest rule since Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. In July, Putin passed constitutional changes that would allow him to remain president until 2036. His support last year dropped to a record low amid the Covid-19 exclusion, but according to the Levada Center, it fell in November a little recovery. He survived several previous waves of anti-Kremlin protests and gradually tightened restrictions on public demonstrations.
Thinner wallets
Russians’ income has fallen again since beating Covid-19
Source: Russian Federal Statistical Service
Navalny, 44, was detained on January 17 when he returned from Germany, where he was recovering from a nerve agent poisoning he and the West blamed on Putin’s secret service. His imprisonment has sparked Western calls for his immediate release, including an appeal this week in a call from US President Joe Biden.
Alexei Navalny is escorted from a police station in Khimki, outside Moscow, on January 18.
Photographer: Alexander Nemenov / AFP / Getty Images
After years in which the anti-vaccination activist was largely ignored in public, the Kremlin tried to refute his allegations. Earlier this week, Putin denounced the protests as “dangerous” and made allegations in a video released by Navalny that he owns a giant $ 1.3 billion black palace. The clip has over 100 million views.
Putin, poison and the importance of Alexey Navalny: QuickTake
Late Wednesday, police detained Navalny’s brother Oleg and two allies, Lyubov Sobol and Anastasia Vasilyeva, for 48 hours on suspicion of violating anti-Covid 19 restrictions. Prosecutors on Friday asked a court in Moscow to place them under house arrest.
They also opened a criminal case in the absence against one of the top assistants of the opposition leader, Leonid Volkov, claiming that he encouraged minors to take part in the protest actions without approval. Volkov, who is now outside Russia, denied the allegations. The opposition leader himself is accused of violating probation on the basis of a suspended sentence while recovering from the August attack in Germany. He faces up to 3 1/2 years in prison at a February 2 trial.
Fade appeal?
Putin’s popularity declined from its peak
Source: Levada Center
The government’s harsh response reflects concerns that the demonstrations are much wider than in the past, said Natalia Zubarevich, head of regional studies at the Independent Institute for Social Policy in Moscow. Yet she expects them to fade as before. “They will blow off steam and get tired of it,” she said.
Pavel Malyi, a prominent investment banker who was among the protesters in Moscow a week ago, said people were feeling a sense of injustice. “Basic rights must be respected,” he said. “I want to be able to look my children in the eye.”
Riot police arrested a Alexey Navalny supporter during a protest rally in Moscow on January 23.
Photographer: Andrey Rudakov / Bloomberg
The challenge posed by Navalny has fueled tensions in the political elite. While one person close to the Kremlin said the authorities should act to reduce social tensions, another official said there was pressure for a hard line that would only exacerbate dissatisfaction and strengthen Navalny’s appeal.
According to Kremlin investigations, Navalny, especially among young people, is gaining more and more recognition and support, according to someone familiar with the numbers that are not public.
Navalny’s ally, Volkov, said the verdict held in prison on Thursday showed that opponents of Putin had no choice but to continue protesting. “The street should have the last say, there is no other way,” he said on Twitter.
– With the help of Ilya Arkhipov, Irina Reznik, Anna Andrianova and Jake Rudnitsky