Maybe these are not the droids you are looking for.
If you’ve been fruitlessly trying to find a PlayStation 5 or Xbox Series X for the past few months, you’d probably be wondering if the whole system is right. The prevailing wisdom is that scammers use bots to steal video games and make innocent nerds predatory.
It turns out that professional scalpers are not as big a factor as you would expect, according to an interesting new analysis of the secondary market for the new PlayStation and Xbox consoles. A surprising proportion of vendors – about 40 percent – sell only one or two consoles on platforms like eBay, StockX and OfferUp, making them more likely to be an enterprising nana who is happier than a professional scam artist.
Starting in December, Michael Driscoll, a computer science student focusing on machine learning at Georgia Tech, used a data scraper to gain insight into the resale markets for high-spec computing components before turning his attention to the PS5 and Xbox. The project was born out of a mixture of practicality and procrastination.
“I want to upgrade my computer for about a year now for some intensive courses I do in school,” he explains. “I started doing this because I had a final exam that I did not want to study for!”
Reverse talked to Driscoll about his process of collecting this data, his advice to anyone who wants to get a next-generation console and what the coming months might look like for the secondary market.
This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.
What exactly is a data scraper, and how does it work?
Actually, I wrote a simple robot that goes through eBay and copies all the listings, with the prices and dates they sold. It’s basically like going to eBay and looking for something. Instead of copying and pasting in Excel myself, my small print copied everything just for me.
Do you still have a PS5 or Series X?
I do not. I basically gave up because it was so hard. I do not have time to look at Discords and stock declines.
What primary differences do you see within the secondary markets for PS5 and Series X?
So there are basically three markets I have analyzed for each: eBay, StockX and OfferUp. eBay is by far the easiest to get data from. The prices are the highest, but it spreads nationwide.
StockX has fees that are almost as high as eBay, but prices are consistently lower. I believe this is because StockX makes it easier for users to see what the lowest total selling price is.
I just recently learned from OfferUp, which is essentially a nicer Craigslist, with a better mobile interface and nicer photos. It is also a competitor of Facebook Marketplace. There are no intermediaries or fees, so prices are lower.
Are people still willing to pay more for a PS5 than a Series X?
Very so. PS5 currently costs $ 800 for the digital version, $ 850 for the disc version. The Series S costs about $ 450-ish, and Series X costs about $ 700.
Why do you think more buyers are choosing the PS5 disc drive model over the digital one?
If I look at my analyzes, the difference between the prices for PS5 disc and digital is $ 50, but the PS4 digital goes for 200 percent of its MSRP, and the disc drive model is 170 percent of MSRP. It just tells my people want a PS5, no matter what model it is.
What would you recommend to anyone looking for a PS5 or Xbox?
Unless there’s a game you really want to play – and for me there’s not enough exclusives yet – just wait. There is no real point. I assume everyone’s PS4 backlog is still huge, too. Just play games you already have, and hopefully there will be more offers in a few months.
Did your analysis give you a better understanding of how sophisticated scalpers work?
I saw some retailers selling on eBay for a lookup. These are sites I know of with the manufacturers to get this stuff at a discounted price.
This is not to say that collisions are not a problem. There are definitely collisions out there. I saw a bot that you can place on your own machine and use to buy something on Amazon at the moment it is available.
But the most important thing is that people know that there will be a drop on Tuesday at 17:00, and you have 100,000 people who want to buy it at exactly the same time.
You notice that a significant number of retailers have only sold one or two units. Did it surprise you?
It was a little more than I expected. I expected the scalper market to be worse than it is.
I expected it to be some giants out there who would sell 90 percent of the merchandise, but many people are just trying to make some extra money during these difficult times, and I do not necessarily owe them that. This is when you see people selling like five or ten people, if it’s good, it went beyond just trying to make a few bucks.
Check out Driscoll’s full PS5 and Xbox resale market analysis.