Home values rose during most of the Bay Area during the pandemic. But they collapsed in San Francisco.
From February 2020 to February 2021, the city’s home values declined in almost every zip code, while house prices soared in most neighboring cities and suburbs, according to a Chronicle analysis of Zillow data.
To estimate the typical home value of a region, Zillow uses what he calls the Zillow Home Value Index – a number that takes into account various data sources, including seasonal variations and the values of homes in the area.
According to this index, San Francisco’s average home values fell slightly from $ 1.46 million to a slightly less noticeable $ 1.42 million, making it the only major city in the Bay Area where home values in the first 12 months of the pandemic decreased.
Estimated home values for most other Bay Cities increased by more than 8.8%, the national average for urban areas. Some places, such as San Jose and Napa, have risen by much more – property values from the cities have risen by 14% and 13.6% respectively.
A zoomed look at these areas shows several zip codes that are better than the average of their cities. Three zip codes in San Jose have increased home values by more than 16%, while zip code 94559, a suburban part of Napa, has risen by almost 20%.
San Francisco, on the other hand, had only two zip codes with a positive growth in home value – 94112 in the Countryside / Excelsior area grew by just under 2%, while 94122 in the Sunset District remained almost flat with a growth of 0.7%.
In 94123, a zip code representing the Marina and Cow Hollow, the estimated home values dropped by nearly 10% to $ 2.35 million. And they dropped from $ 1.66 million to $ 1.45 million – a decrease of 12% – in 94104, a zip code that contains a small portion of the financial district.
Zillow’s report found that the growth in property value in urban areas is mostly equivalent to suburban areas; urban regions grew by 8.8%, suburban by 8.7%.
Growth was even stronger in California, where average home value rose 11% over the past year to an overall high of $ 635,000, despite rising unemployment rates. An increase in demand from affluent residents and years of low supply in the housing market have pushed up prices, according to the Public Policy Institute in California.
The Bay has deviated from state and national trends. The urban postal codes in the nine regions increased house prices by an average of only 4.7%, while the home values of the suburban postal codes increased by 9.3%. The slow pace of urban housing prices is driven almost entirely by San Francisco.
In addition, our analysis throughout the Bay Area found that the value of homes in cheaper zip codes rose at higher prices than more expensive. However, this trend has reversed in rural areas: affordable rural postcodes have seen home values rise at a slower pace than in affluent areas.
Zip code 95046 in San Martin, for example, raised average home values by nearly 22%, from $ 1.08 million to $ 1.3 million; Zip Code 94515 in Calistoga, a wealthy city in Napa County, increased its property values from $ 888,000 to $ 1.07 million.
Meanwhile, the relatively cheaper zip code 94571 in Rio Vista increased home values by only 8.4%, from $ 385,000 to $ 417,000. Zip code 95421 in Cazadero reduced the estimated home value, from $ 566,000 to $ 563,000.
It is possible that affluent San Franciscoers leaving the city have seen zip codes in affluent rural areas as attractive from a quality of life perspective, with homes costing on average still less than those of San Francisco.
Our analysis adopted the definition of economist Jed Kolko of urban versus suburban zip codes, which depends on household density. All San Francisco zip codes qualify as urban, while most other major Bay cities have a mix of urban and suburban zip codes.
Susie Neilson and Nami Sumida are writers of San Francisco Chronicle staff. Email: [email protected], [email protected]; Twitter: @susieneilson, @namisumida