By Maayan Lubell and Ari Rabinovitch
JERUSALEM (Reuters) – Israel’s rapid vaccination has made it the largest study of Pfizer Inc’s COVID-19 vaccine. The results are dripping in, and it’s promising.
More than half of the eligible Israelites – about 3.5 million people – are now fully or partially vaccinated. Older groups and risks, the first to be vaccinated, see a dramatic decrease in diseases.
Among the first fully vaccinated group, there was a 53% decrease in new cases, a 39% decrease in hospitalizations and a 31% decrease in serious illnesses from mid-January to 6 February, said Eran Segal, data scientist from the Weizmann Institute, said. science in Rehovot, Israel.
(Graph: trends in COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations in Israel after vaccination – https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/ISRAEL-RESULTS/yzdvxwojdpx/TRENDS-PCT.jpg)
In the same period, people under 60 who were later eligible for shots fell by 20%, but hospitalizations and serious illnesses increased by 15% and 29% respectively.
Reuters interviewed leading scientists in Israel and abroad, Israeli health officials, hospital heads and two of the country’s largest healthcare providers about what new data shows of the world’s most effective vaccination.
Vaccine management has provided a database that provides insight into how effective the vaccines are outside of controlled clinical trials, and at what stage countries can achieve sought-after but elusive herd immunity.
More will be known within two weeks, as teams’ efficacy of the vaccine in younger groups of Israelis, as well as targeted populations such as people with diabetes, cancer and pregnant women, under a patient base of at least ten times greater than those in clinical studies.
“We need to have enough diversity in the subgroup and enough follow-up time so that you can draw the right conclusions, and we’re getting to that point,” said Ran Balicer, head of innovation at HMO Clalit. half of the Israeli population.
Pfizer monitors the Israeli implementation weekly for insights that can be used around the world.
As a small country with universal healthcare, advanced data capabilities and the promise of rapid implementation, Israel has given Pfizer a unique opportunity to study the impact of the vaccine developed with German BioNTech.
However, the company said it is ‘difficult to predict the exact time when herd protection may begin to manifest’, as there are many variables, including social distance measures and the number of new infections generated in each case, known as the reproduction rate.
Even Israel, at the forefront of global vaccination, has lowered expectations to emerge quickly from the pandemic due to rising incidents.
A third national exclusion has struggled to limit the transmission, which is attributed to the rapidly spreading UK variant of the virus. The Pfizer / BioNTech survey appears to be positive against it.
“We have so far identified the same effectiveness of 90 to 95% against the British tribe,” said Hezi Levi, director general of the Israeli Ministry of Health.
“However, it is still early, because we are only finished the first week after the second dose,” he said, adding: “It is too early to say anything about the South African variant.”
WHAT ARM?
Israel began its vaccination program on December 19 – the day after Hanukkah – after paying a premium for the stock of Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine.
Four days later, the more contagious variant was detected in the UK in four people. While the vaccine disease occurs in older people, the variant now accounts for about 80% of new cases.
Israel was in a race between the vaccine and the new variant and started giving shots to those over 60 and gradually opened the program to the rest of the population.
Every detail was digitally traced, in which arm the patient was stabbed and from which vial it came.
According to Maccabi, a leading Israeli healthcare provider, 254 out of 416,900 people were switched on one week after receiving the second dose of Pfizer – the point at which full protection is expected to begin.
(Graph: COVID-19 infections among vaccinated people – https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/ISRAEL-RESULTS/qmyvmwnxdvr/INFECTIONS-AMONG-VACCINATED-POP.jpg)
The comparison with a non-vaccinated group showed an effectiveness of 91% of the vaccine, Maccabi said.
22 days after complete vaccination, no infections were recorded.
Israeli experts are confident that the vaccinations, rather than the closure measures, will reduce the numbers, based on the study of different cities, age groups and pre-vaccination.
The comparisons were “convincing to say that this is the effect of the vaccination,” said Segal of the Weizmann Institute.
With 80% of senior citizens being partially or fully vaccinated, a more complete picture will start appearing as early as this week.
“And we do expect further declines in overall cases and in cases of serious illness,” said Balicer, of HMO Clalit.
ESTABLISHMENT AND TRANSFER
There may be early signs that vaccinations in addition to disease also undermine the transmission of viruses
In Israel’s largest COVID-19 testing center, run by MyHeritage, researchers have found a significant decrease in the number of virus-infected people, known as cT value, among the most vaccinated age groups.
This suggests that even if vaccinated people become infected, they are less likely to infect others, MyHeritage scientific officer Yaniv Erlich said.
“The data so far is probably the clearest from Israel. I believe these vaccines will further reduce transmission,” said Stefan Baral, of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health in Maryland.
DECLINING MORE INCOME
It is unclear whether Israel will be able to maintain its leading vaccination rate.
“If you vaccinate quickly and a lot, you will eventually get to the hardcore – those who are less willing or harder to reach,” said Boaz Lev, head of the Ministry of Health’s advisory panel.
The vaccination rate is seen even more importantly with the rapid transfer of the British variant.
“In the race between the spread of the British variant and the vaccinations, the end result is that we see a kind of plateau in terms of seriously ill,” Segal said.
The big question is whether vaccines can eradicate the pandemic.
Michal Linial, a professor of molecular biology and bioinformatics at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said data from recent decades suggest that viruses are becoming endemic and seasonal.
She predicted that this coronavirus would become much less aggressive, and might require a shot in three years.
“The virus is not going anywhere,” she concluded.
(Additional reporting by Dan Williams, Ronen Zvulun, Steven Scheer and Julie Steenhuysen; Writing by Maayan Lubell; Editing by Bill Berkrot)