Power concentration of AMLO, COVID-19, Joe Biden: the political giants for Mexico in 2021

Mexico, as the rest of the world, approaching one year 2020 incense burner. The pandemic of coronavirus trajo consigne una sanitaria unedited in a sail that derives in a economic emergence by the impact of global confinement.

The legacy of the vacuna against the COVID-19 and the restoration of the activities in the zones of the country is carried out rapidly through the increase in cases and contagios in the Republic, specifically in the center of the country, for which these weeks the pandemic will be heard soon.

This is all the election scenario: Mexico will host the biggest elections of its history on June 6 in the midst of a pandemic that only aggravated in the last months. At the same time, the administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador Deberá Sorting Out The Legacy Of Democrat Joe Biden On Power, to replace Donald Trump, in a few days.

Ante is a scenario, a group of experts realized a report with 10 greatest political giants Mexico in 2021, año dos de la pandemie. The analysis, conducted by Integralia Consultores, a consultative firm on political risk, social conflict and strategic planning, including a pregnancy semester to deal with any risk.

“The analysis is based on an Integralia Consultants methodology that quantifies the potential impact and probability of each risk, based on quantitative and qualitative indicators. Cabe signal that risk is not prediction and the level of probability can change during the year”, Note the authors of the project, consulted by Infobae México.

Riesgos muy altos

Agreed with the report, the first and most great risk for this 2021 is related, without surprise, with the coronavirus. Have a look at the possibilities falls in the strategy of containment and evacuation against the COVID-19, which provokes the prolongation of the sanitary contingency, “which increases the risks of economic deterrence and governmental inefficiency”.

The second risk is referred to que el presidente López Obrador adopts a “defiant strategy” regarding the decisions of the INE (Instituto Nacional Electoral), the autonomous body that organizes the comics of 2021, to contain its political activism. This “polarizes the atmosphere of the campaigns, increases the risks of post-electoral conflicts and generates legal interdependence”, he explains.

Ambos riesgos are the only ones that are ubiquitous in the most remote zone of the semaphore: the dark red color, donde the probability that ocurran is “Muy Alta” for analysts to conduct the report.

Riesgos altos

Between the risks with the probability “Alta” to get, in red color of the report, are six options. The first is referred to as Morena, the party of López Obrador, to get –Junto con sus aliados– an absolute Mayoria in the Chamber of Deputies, in addition to a triumph at least with the help of the 15 governorates to renovate this year, so far as you can hear the polls now. Esto, advirtieron, “verlei ‘n burgemeester concentrración de poder e incertumbre juridica”.

The next big ones are referring to the actions of López Obrador, who needed to recruit the “energetic nationalism” that would “impulse an energy counter-reform”, which increases the risk of economic backlog, indicates the report

Asimismo, as he advertised in the last days and weeks, the risk is high that the federal government proposes to reduce the dismantling of autonomous organs and regulators, “This increases the risks of legal incidence and governmental inefficiency”.

Last week, the Mexican mandate adelanto that in February will send a package of initiatives to Disappear these institutions and incorporate them into their own cabinet.

On the other hand, when both Chambers of the Mexican Congress resumed its legislative activities in February, at the beginning of the regular part-session, there was a great deal to approve, with more Morenian chapters in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, the reforms outsourcing of y el Banco de México. It strains the relationship with the private sector and increases the risk of economic backwardness, manifesto in the report.

The other giants with high probability of winning are referred to “resupeer presupuestarios‘, Que conducirían a’ un deterioro en la provisionión de servicios públicos’ n federal, rural and rural municipality, which increases the risk of governmental infection ”.

And this is one of the most important policies of the López Obrador administration to have with the austerity en el gobierno, la cual has led many of its efforts to reduce the number of guests of its administration by more than one occasion in various areas.

The ultimate risk in this series the point of the delictive incidence “as a result of the regularization of economic activities and major tasks of development and inequality”. Mexico culminated in 2019 as the most violent year since it was registered and in 2020 the truck was hit by a pandemic. But, in agreement with the experts, that the indices do not detengan is a high probability.

Riesgos medios

The last of the huge mentions in the report are true to the color amarillo, to determine the probability of occurring “Media”. The first of them is the exchange of administration in the United States.

The Democrat Asuncion Joe Biden, who won the November elections passed to Donald Trump, ally of López Obrador, called for “gradually modifying the agenda and the style of relations with Washington “, which is the occasion”tension in the bilateral relationship ”.

And since they have been reconciling their victories until the Electoral College convenes the validity, López Obrador emphatically conveys his bilateral relationship with the most important society that will run the rest of its sex: President Biden. Prohibition of probes, the actions and commencement between the goblins and Biden have shown their intention to work with the Mexican governor.

The last result of the list is referred to imbalance of public finances, which could lead to “a fiscal reform that affects the climate of business, or derivative of a reduction in the classification of the sovereign debt, with which increases the risk of economic backwardness ”.

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