The decision of an International Criminal Court panel to pave the way for a possible Israeli war crime investigation forces the Biden government to embark on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict much earlier than expected.
Why it matters: The ICC decision angered the Israeli government – and it also emphasized their dependence on the Biden administration, senior Israeli officials tell me. After the decision was announced on Friday, Israel immediately began urgent consultations with US officials.
- On Monday morning, the US Chargé d’affaires met in Jerusalem with Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi to discuss the matter.
- Hours later, Foreign Minister Tony Blinken spoke to Ashkenazi and reassured him that the US would help Israel resist the ICC ruling, Israeli officials said.
The whole picture: Unlike the Obama and Trump administrations, the Biden administration does not see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a foreign policy priority and expects little progress.
- On CNN Monday, Blinken summed up President Biden’s initial approach to the issue as ‘do no harm’ – to ensure that neither party takes unilateral steps to further a path to peace.
- Biden does not think there is a realistic chance of resuming negotiations between the parties any time soon, and therefore does not plan to appoint a special envoy for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
But just three weeks into Biden’s term, Israeli officials warn of a deep crisis in Israeli-Palestinian relations if the ICC prosecutor will take up the war crimes investigation, which was initially requested by the Palestinian government.
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now needs Biden’s support in an issue of great importance to Israel.
- The Department of Foreign Affairs has already decided on the ICC that it is competent to investigate the matter.
- The Israeli government now hopes that the government in Biden will pressure the member states of the court and the prosecutor not to continue the investigation.
What to look for: The dependency could give the US leverage if it wants to deter the Israeli government from taking challenging steps, such as building further settlements, or it could gain Israel’s approval for the reopening of the US consulate in Jerusalem.
- But the ICC ruling could also hamper the Biden government’s efforts to renew ties with the Palestinians – in particular the plan to reopen the PLO office in Washington, which the Trump administration closed in 2018. open.
- An existing U.S. law requires the Secretary of State to declare to Congress that the Palestinian Authority does not act against Israel in the ICC, so that the PLO may have an office in Washington.
The state of affairs: Palestinian leaders welcomed the ICC ruling and called for an investigation as soon as possible. It is unclear whether Biden’s government has held any talks with Palestinian officials.