What the Atlanta Falcons choose to do with the fourth overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft could shape the league’s landscape for years to come. And it’s not exaggerated.
Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Mac Jones, Justin Fields or Trey Lance are expected to go to the Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers, after which the Hawks will have to decide if they want to continue on quarterbacks and pick Matt. Ryan’s successor or going in a different direction, and maybe even trading the choice to another franchise that needs a QB.
Enter the New England Patriots.
There has been so much talk about whether Bill Belichick will target a quarterback in the draft, one year from the loss of Tom Brady to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in free agency. If so, he may have to trade to get one of the top five callers available later this month.
So, what exactly would it cost the Patriots to move up from number 15 to number 4?
NFL insider Albert Breer outlined the potential prize in a piece published by Sports Illustrated on Thursday by looking at the Jimmy Johnson draft value card and applying it to New England.
Here is what Breer wrote:
The Falcons’ choice on the old Jimmy Johnson draft value card is worth 1800 points. The Patriots sit in 15th place and one is 1,050 points. In general, you first value a future at a little less than the middle price. A middle-in-the-first-round pick equals 975 points, which will get you past 1800. That is, if you think the Patriots are going to be good next year – and we have two decades of evidence that Bill Belichick is very capable of making that happen – then you are not going to appreciate the choice so much.
Let’s say you would appreciate the Patriots ’first round in 2022 as the 28th pick. That one is worth 660 points, and 1,050 plus 660 is 1,710. Add to that the two patterns of the Patriots, which are worth 54 and 50 points, and you are there.
There you have it. According to this hypothetical scenario, the Patriots would acquire the Hawks’ No. 4 pick in exchange for no. 15, no. 120, no. 122 and a first-round pick in 2022.
Who says “no” to such a stocking?
Probably the Hawks, right? The Miami Dolphins won the No. 12 pick, two future firsts (2022 and 2023) and a future third player (2022) of the San Francisco 49ers in exchange for the No. 3. Although Atlanta can not expect exactly the same level of compensation – three quarters will likely be at No. 4 on the board, as opposed to two – a similar package seems feasible, especially if a team falls in love with one of the remaining quarterbacks. .
Nevertheless, Breer’s quick calculation is still a bit of information to nibble on as we wait on the foyer: a captivating first round that can largely be determined by the Falcons’ next step.
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