A major new poll among 2020 Trump voters shows how divided they were on social insurance, Medicare, trade and tax cuts for the rich – while culture, religion and patriotism and the border between the US and Mexico unite the issues.
Send the news: The YouGov poll of 1,000 voters, conducted last month and reviewed by Axios, briefs a Friday forum on the future of the IDP hosted by the American Enterprise Institute and Center for Ethics and Public Policy. It captures the thinking of this powerful part of the base, not only after the election, but also after Jan. 6.
- “The challenge for Republicans after Trump is how to build on the conservative populist alliance, not to throw away the populist part, “said Henry Olsen, senior leader of the EPPC.
By the numbers: Asked to respond to a statement once considered orthodox by the Republican Party: “Reducing the tax rate paid by the richest Americans helps increase economic growth for all of us”, 46% said they did not vote together not.
- One-third dispute whether tax cuts on large businesses are helping to boost economic growth for all.
- 60% said foreign trade helps the US economy, while 40% said it hurts.
- 40% said foreign trade creates more jobs for Americans, while 60% said it reduces the number of jobs for Americans.
- 55% said it is more important to control the cost of Medicare for taxpayers, but 45% say it is more important to ensure the elderly get the health care they need, regardless of the cost.
- 63% said that it is more important to keep social security benefits at the current level, even if it means raising the tax burden, but 37% prefer to keep a lid on the tax burden, even if it means the benefits for future pensioners are reduced.
But, but, but: Nearly nine in ten supported the construction of a U.S.-Mexico border wall, supporting U.S. employers who affirm employee citizenship, concerned about growing anti-white discrimination, and saying that Christian faith is essential to American greatness, but attack.
Between the lines: There is real division in the Trump coalition over the future of the IDP.
- 66% said they are more supporters of former President Trump than of the Republican Party.
- 37% said the party is on the wrong track.
- 40% said Republicans care more about helping people make more money than helping people lead decent lives.
- 54% said they would definitely support Trump in 2024 if he ran again.
What they say: “The Trump coalition is fundamentally different” from Republicans and Republican leaders, Olsen told Axios.
- ‘Once we are away from economics, to patriotism, culture, the religious questions, it is a clear super-majority, and it unites the coalition. “There really is no way a modern Democratic coalition can jump on those terms in that conversation.”
- “But economics definitely divides the Trump coalition … All the things that defined economic thinking before Trump are now a complete rift.” Moving back to conservative economic ideas can ‘be like opening a door for Democrats to walk through’.
- The challenge for Republicans is “they need to cement the Trump coalition beyond Trump’s personality.”
Methodology: This survey among 1000 Trump 2020 voters was conducted on 11-14 January 2021 with an error margin of +/- 3.5%
- YouGov interviewed 1,069 Trump voters corresponding to a sample of 1,000 to compile the final data set based on the characteristics of Trump voters from the 2020 Cooperative Congressional Election Study. The corresponding data were weighed according to age, gender, race and education using propensity point weight.