The Phillies agree on a two-year deal with shortstop Didi Gregorius, reports Jayson Stark of Athletic (Twitter link). This is a $ 28 million guarantee, add the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. The agreement contains postponement, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).
Gregory is returning to Philadelphia after originally joining a one-year deal with the Phils last winter. It was a proof-of-the-deal deal after Gregorius struggled in 2019, and the veteran shortstop made the chances good. He started 56 of the team’s 60 games at shortstop and achieved a strong .284 / .339 / .488 series with ten home games over 237 record appearances.
Given how well he performed in 2020, it makes sense that the Phillies were happy to keep Gregory in the kraal. On his return the club can leave Jean Segura on second base, where he played last season. It also prevents the Phils from having to pencil Scott Kingery in an everyday role after struggling through a cruel 2020 Rhys Hoskins and Alec Bohm can now flank the Gregorius-Segura pairing on the dirt most days.
There was regular grouping with Gregorius Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons at the top of the free market of established big leagues shortstops this winter. All three agreed this week, and Gregory found the most lucrative guarantee. Semien and Simmons each signed one-year contracts (although Semien’s $ 18MM is better than Gregorius’ average annual value of $ 14MM), while Gregorius received a multi-year arrangement. However, its total amount of $ 28MM comes south of the forecast of MLBTR staff of $ 39MM over three years in the off-season.
This may reflect teams’ horror at Gregory’s balanced criteria. His average passing rate of 83.8 MPH last season was wide in the second percentile league. He was also close to the bottom of the league in hard contact percentages and barrel rates. Gregorius has never been one to hit the ball very hard, although his average pull-out speed was closer to the league average during his last two seasons with the Yankees.
Of course, Gregorius achieved much success despite the undermining criteria for contact quality. He has been an above-average hitter in three of the past four seasons, with a 2019 season in which he made a mid-season return from the Tommy John operation as his stand-alone year. Gregorius places the ball at an elite rate, leading to proper batting averages. He also possessed a skill of hitting the ball in the air to the right field, which enabled him to strike a solid amount of power in games, although he did not have very strong strength and physicality.
On the other side of the ball, Gregorius received mixed reviews from defensive standards. Ultimate Zone Rating has long considered him an approximate short stop, while Defensive Runs Saved has soured him a bit recently. With the stats’ extraordinary percentage, meanwhile, Gregorius has paired a defender below average every year since its launch in 2017. Over a two-year term, the 30-year-old (31 in February) should have no problem holding the position, even if he is no longer the defender he was earlier in his career.
The Phillies managed to retain both of their best potential starting points, and Gregorius signed for a week JT Realmuto on a five-year agreement. The Phils payroll now amounts to an estimated $ 187MM per grid resource, exactly in line with the $ 185MM price before last season (although the yet-to-be-announced postponement of Gregorius’ deal could lower the current figure somewhat). The organization’s estimated $ 195.3MM luxury obligations leave a little less than $ 15MM for further additions if ownership is willing to spend up to the first tax threshold. Even after signing Matt Moore, Philadelphia can stand to add the site staff if they hope to keep pace in a talented NL East.
From a broader market perspective, the Gregorius signature removes the last clear everyday caliber stop from free agency. Teams without a clear option, the Reds and Athletics among them, can now leave them to the trading market to strengthen the position.