This year is yet to be finalized for the petroleum sector, mainly due to the huge and accelerated recovery of the global dominant system. As well as the priority in energy security of western countries is intensifying and the applications under the control of the appeals are in full swing.
We have a “tranquilo” entry, in which we do not imagine the rapid propaganda of covid-19, even though the notice impacts this month on the behalf of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani’s assassin on behalf of the Donald Trump administration, lo which raised the alarms in the petroleum market over the hours of a mayor risking the energy minister in the Middle East, among other implications.
In view of the crude prices, these tend to be the next months since the covid-19 pandemic was presented just before the 20th of April, on which the WTI parking mark of 18 $ / ba -38 $ / b at hourly rate.
Graphs that demonstrate WTI behavior in April 2020
(Photo: S&P Market Intelligence / Reuters)
In this sense, the Organization of Petroleum Exporters of Petroleum (OPEP) hizo the proposition, coordinate and unified efforts to determine political goals to adopt to salvage stability of the market ahead of the impacts on crude demand in this pandemic scenario.
In the light of these high points, the master must make a break, also, of the investments in alternative energy, the movements of the large petroleum corporations and some projections of renowned organizations in order to estimate possible scenarios, including in the year to come Controversy and calamitous United States elections, the White House will be chaired by Joe Biden.
The waves of the petroleum market
Without pretending to abarc the totality of the interactions that affect the petroleum market, it will not be more likely to comment on any of these considerations this year.
There is a reference to the April event, which at the moment justifies the mention of the complications in the grazing treatment; sin embargo, al día siguiente el WTI registraba 11 $ / b, llegando a recuperarse paulatinamente toda esa semana más ala los los 16 $ / b, asi que no se descarta que est maniobra haya sido una typica specección, propia de la struc structure.
In the same way, the usual preoccupations present months before af China, desde enres finale, se etabllecieron los cierres de las ciudades en el marco de la cuarentena, which generates a significant amount of energy demand.
Sumo a esto, Rusia y Arabia Saudita, de los mayors productors de crudo en la OPEP +, decidieron nun plegarse mais profundos inter February and March, ya que la participation in the market on the podium arriesgarse.
The major corporate media are documenting these decisions as a “price war” and, in particular, they doubt that this is entirely the case, because the market quotes are key to any actor who is within this dynamic, including this factor is the main theme in each negotiation. Arabia Saudi Arabia and Russia simply defend their position in the market ahead of the producers of shale estadounidense, which initiated by us one year ago the world war of prices, adding to the bay of the prices of crude, then the abundant oil and barato has served in the case of estimating.
Loss of participation and share the road to another exporting country is not very attractive in economic terms. In the petroleum game all its reactions are reduced to its participation in the market.
However, the beginning of the market for recruitment has begun with the evolution of the pandemic, since the hope of a possible vaccine and the increase in covid-19 contagions throughout the world, in addition to the aerospace and urban cores, is that the panorama of the windows months no alignment parish for the petroleum sector.
However, the market is moving upwards in equilibrium in the middle of the replica experiment, leading to a possible crisis in the long run, as of June to October the WTI will close the range between $ 30 / b – $ 40 / b. For the last quarter of the year, it is hoped that at some point the collapse of the new prices will be corrected, except for the optimism about a sustained recovery from the demand for a career in the manufacture of vacancies and its immediate application.
The International Energy Agency (AIE) and the OPEP han reduces its prognosis of crude demand for what it is this year. Although the revision of the IAEA’s downturn is more optimistic, both numbers are around 90 million barrels of barriers and the 2013 global demand for petroleum is evolving.
Definitely, not to mention optimistic projections, the global economy is entering new dynamics and by the time it is experienced in the energy camp it appears that the market has been artificially supported by financial interests, and many companies are appreciative much time of the low tide of oil companies can not pay their debts, which, effectively, can generate a demand for liquidated dollars that can destabilize the financial system and pay off in a panic.
Thus, the first quarter of 2021 is defined, in part, as the next OPEP + reunion, in which various countries have ten intentions to increase production in terms of the implications of covid-19 rebates that abarcan multiple arrests.
OPEP + vs NOPEC
Since then, in the context of security and energy independence at all costs of the United States, some Congregational States have promoted legislation to encourage the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, for the sake of production.
It is known as “Ley de Carteles de no Production and Export of Petroleum” or the best known as “NOPEC”, which was designed to eliminate the state of the economy, allowing the OPEP and its national oil companies to be demanded. Ley Sherman), on behalf of the Department of Justice of this country, argues that the organization affects the prices of the crucible. This is a total absurdity, but in this unmanageable maneuver will not make the reason.
For 2018, Donald Trump took to Twitter to rank the OPEP as a monopoly and express the diatriba against the organization to maintain the prices of the oil fired and high-powered that the bajaran, as if the OPEP could have done so only to press a button. With these signals, in the Congress the impulsive forces of the NOPEC will approve Trump’s exaltation against the organization.
But in April 2020, before the collapse of the demand, Trump felt that he should start calling on the initiative of the OPEP + to create unified and coordinated linear line initiatives. Here is the great viraje, the president of the stadium informs that he spoke with the principle of Saudi heredity, Mohammad bin Salmán, and the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, with the finality of recording the production of petroleum and then maneuvering the scenarios for coming.
Días nevertheless consolidated the unpublished, Trump announced that “the major oil agreement with OPEP + is high”. With this in mind, the role of the OPEP as an intergovernmental organization to promote the petroleum policies of the Member States and this week, accompanied by the G20 countries, will be strengthened. And so it has manifested itself in the long run of this difficult year, then the Organization of Ideas has the media to ensure the stabilization of prices in the market with miras to avoid further fluctuations.
The NOPEC quedo, meanwhile, in hope.
Proximity scenarios with Biden at the front
To predict the global petroleum scenario, it is mandatory to include the United States as the main actor in the energy geopolitical orbit, as well as its desperate obsession with the control of energy resources as much as the idea of technological domination. It is no secret that the rise or fall of the petroleum industry in any country as far as the economy is concerned is the United States.
Based on the paper that United States of America plays in this context, Joe Biden has recently published his governing body companions for the next few years. Characters like Kamala Harris and Anthony Blinken are some of Barack Obama’s pupils who are now at the front in this administration. However, the attention was also paid to the occupation of the Energy Secretariat, and through information informed that Jennifer Granholm, ex-governor of Michigan and promoter of electric vehicles, will chair this space.
Barack Obama has the governor of Michigan, Jennifer Granholm, during the graduation ceremony of the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan, May 3, 2010 (Photo: Casa Blanca)
Asimismo, Biden nominated Gina McCarthy, Director of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), to coordinate the topics of the Climate Change. McCarthy is currently in charge of the Council for the Defense of Natural Resources, which has asked the Trump administration for vices.
This extra pork during its Biden campaign was explicitly linked to the policies of the Green New Deal and in the international market is a reincarnation of the United States in the process of completing the Paris Accords.
Now, well, from the impression that the “heroic” Democrats will save the planet, but in the real world the hechos are alien to this movie. We note that the boom of the shale began around 2008, just as Barack Obama used the cargo for the first of his terms as president, converting to United States in the mayor of petroleum and gas production that he sailed.
Biden does not eliminate fracking, ingenuo no es, pues el fracking and el shale estadounidense son y deben ser asumidos como politica de Estado del país norteamericano. What is sure to happen is a huge loss for the oil industry, but one that will benefit more than others.
In this sense, the alert should be maintained because this group that accompanies Biden is an expert in arming passive-aggressive plans from various international institutions for impressive agendas that serve to excuse them from invading, but more, to countries that do not travel. The climatic agenda will be one of the critical maneuvers that may be adopted against Venezuela in the near future.
Some weeks to culminate this year in the energy sphere we will soon be sure that the era of global oil instability will continue.
(Tomado de Misión Verdad)