The data consists of: people infected with the coronavirus variant first discovered in the UK have a higher risk of dying from COVID-19 than those who get other versions of the virus.
New research published in the journal Nature on Monday found that among the cases where variant B.1.1.7 was known, patients had a 55% greater chance of death within four weeks after their positive test.
The authors of the study examined approximately 2.2 million people who tested positive in England between September and mid-February, and then compared the number of deaths among those with B.1.1.7 with those infected with other strains.
After researching variables, including a patient’s age, gender, ethnicity, and life arrangements, the researchers found that with the original virus, approximately six out of every 1,000 people in their 60s who are positive would die. But this number rises to about nine out of 1,000 with B.1.1.7.
“Despite significant advances in COVID-19 treatment, we have seen more deaths in 2021 than in the first eight months of the 2020 pandemic. Our work helps explain why,” said Nick Davies, lead author of the study and an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said in a press release.
In January and February, 42,000 people in England died from COVID-19.
Evidence shows that the B.1.1.7 variant is more lethal
B.1.1.7 was discovered outside London in September, but initial evidence indicated that the tension was not more deadly. In January, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the variant was likely to be accompanied by higher deaths.
Research published in the journal BMJ last week confirmed this. It found that B.1.1.7 is more lethal than other strains – and even more lethal than the results of the nature study indicate.
The BMJ researchers examined nearly 55,000 pairs of people in the UK. Within each pair, one person tested positive for B.1.1.7, while the other one tested positive for another coronavirus strain (including the variants from South Africa and Brazil). The members of each pair had similar ages, ethnic groups and geographical locations, and achieved their positive test results between October and February.
The study found that the B.1.1.7 variant was 64% more lethal than the other strains within the four weeks after a positive test.
Johnson’s announcement in January was based on research collected by the UK’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, which found that people infected with B.1.1.7 in the UK were on average 30% higher than those with the original virus. .
A follow-up analysis by Public Health England analyzed the data collected between late November and early January and found that B.1.1.7 was 65% more lethal than other strains. Researchers at the University of Exeter, meanwhile, looked at samples collected between October and late January and found that people infected with the variant were nearly twice as likely to die.
Higher deaths may be associated with higher virus load
The increased mortality of the strain may result in people infected with B.1.1.7 having, on average, higher virus load, which means that they produce more viral particles when infected. Higher viral loads, according to multiple studies, are associated with a higher risk of death and worse diseases.
“It was the first thing that definitely came to my mind,” William Schaffner, an expert in infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University, told Insider earlier. “It will make very good sense.”
It is also possible that the increased transmission of the strain simply gives the virus a greater chance of infecting more people who are at higher risk for serious diseases. A more transmissible stress means that people are more likely to become infected when they are exposed; B.1.1.7 is between 50% and 70% more contagious than the original version of the virus.
This higher transmissibility may be due to several mutations in the genetic code for the ear protein of the virus, which it uses to invade cells. These adjustments may make it easier to distribute the B.1.1.7 variant.
“It could simply be a matter of a more contagious virus that is vulnerable to people who are older or have underlying health problems, such as diabetes or lung disease,” Schaffner said.
Another possibility is that the increased portability of the variant has indirectly contributed to a higher mortality rate due to the strain it places on the UK healthcare system. The number of daily COVID-19 cases there skyrocketed in the four months following the discovery of B.1.1.7, and it jumped from 3,899 new cases on September 20 to more than 68,000 cases on January 8.
The increase in cases in UK hospitals and healthcare resources, which could be detrimental to patient outcomes.
“If your affairs get out of control, your deaths will get out of control as your health system comes under pressure,” Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization’s health emergency program, said in January.
Existing vaccines work against B.1.1.7
B.1.1.7 has been found in 94 countries, including the USA.
But in recent studies, Pfizer and Moderna found that their shots held up well against the variant. Other vaccines, including those of Johnsen & Johnsen and AstraZeneca, also protect humans against B.1.1.7.
But these shots generally seem less effective compared to the variant first discovered in South Africa, B.1.351, and the strain found in Brazil, called P.1.
This is probably because the two variants have a mutation that can prevent the antibodies generated as a result of the original virus from recognizing it. This genetic modification is mostly missing in B.1.1.7, although British researchers have found 11 cases of B.1.1.7 with the mutation in a set of more than 200,000 samples.
Studies have not found that B.1.351 or P.1 is more lethal than the original virus.
Read the original article on Business Insider