A year after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Michigan residents are resuming normal life – but recent increases in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations show that the pandemic is not over yet, Michigan health officials say.
“So we are in a different place (than 2020), but we are not there yet, to be honest,” said dr. Joneigh Khaldun, chief deputy director for the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, said Wednesday during a press conference by MDHHS: March 17.
Dr Sarah Lyon-Callo, Director of the MDHHS Bureau of Epidemiology and Population Health, outlined the following trends:
- The daily average of new COVID-19 cases has doubled in the last three weeks and the seven day average is now almost 2000 new cases per day.
- The average positive percentage of seven days on coronavirus diagnostic tests now exceeds 5% and it is higher than 7% in the Kalamazoo region.
- Nearly 1,000 people are currently hospitalized for coronavirus, a 14% increase over the past week. This is the third consecutive week of increases, and at the current rate, the state could get 2,000 hospitalizations within five weeks.
- The number of deaths is still falling, but Lyon-Callo and others have repeatedly warned that deaths are a backlog and are likely to rise in the coming weeks.
Michigan’s positive tests and daily cases of coronavirus continue to climb
Michigan is among the 11 states that are seeing the increase in COVID-19 transmission, and the only state outside Minnesota in the Upper Midwest has seen an increase, Lyon-Callo said.
Perhaps the biggest cause of the increase is the emergence of the new COVID-19 variant, which is more contagious than the dominant strain of coronavirus, Callo-Lyon said. Michigan is one of the states with the most identified cases of the B.1.1.7 strain first emerging in the United Kingdom. This variant has been identified in 31 Michigan provinces.
“One of the reasons we are concerned about the increase in the case is that we are seeing the increasing distribution of variants in the United States, and that we are experiencing it in Michigan,” Lyon-Callo said.
“Just a reminder, this variant is more transmissible, so that someone infected with COVID-19 will transmit the virus more easily to others,” she added.
Other factors causing the increases: the reopening of schools, and the resumption of school sports and restaurant-indoor dining; increases in travel and non-essential travel outside the home, and ‘COVID fatigue’, in which people are less likely to adhere to the guidelines on masks and social distance, she said.
COVID investigations show an increase in the number of close contacts that could infect coronavirus patients, as well as fewer people who were in quarantine when COVID was diagnosed. The latter indicates more spread in the community – people catch the virus without knowing how it has been exposed.
“This is expected as we increase mobility,” Lyon-Callo said. “However, it will also increase the spread of diseases, so less quarantine is taken very seriously.”
The importance of quarantine is especially important because of the more contagious variants, she said. One of the reasons why we emphasize this especially today is because with a B.1.1.7 variant occurring more and more in the state, it is even more important that people take place in quarantine (after a possible exposure), so that they no longer transmit virus to others around them. ”
As for schools, Lyon-Callo said the number of outbreaks related to schools – especially high schools – has jumped, but most of these involve extracurricular activities versus classroom exposure.
“The classroom environment itself was not a strong signal for outbreaks,” she said. “These are mostly the activities related to schools, including sports, but not just sports.”
There was positive news in Tuesday’s briefing: COVID cases and death rates are declining among those aged 70 and older, which probably reflects the high vaccination rates for senior citizens. And since the age group has had a major impact on COVID hospitalizations and deaths recently, the current increase in cases is less likely to overwhelm hospitals or cause a large increase in deaths.
Elizabeth Hertel, director of MDHHS, was asked if the increasing numbers could lead to a standstill or restrictions again, and says that MDHHS encourages people to double down on strategies that will prevent it. This includes wearing masks and keeping group activities out, where possible.
“This is something we talk about regularly when we look at what is happening on the ground and try to balance it with the ability to still participate in a number of opportunities and activities that we all enjoy,” she said.
One reason to be positive, she said, “Vaccinations seem to work.”
Khaldun agreed. “As we get more and more vaccinations in the state and more people are vaccinated, I do not think we are going to see the same kind of boom as in 2020,” she said. ‘But there is still a risk, especially with these different variants.
“We still have this ongoing problem,” Khaldun said, “but we certainly promise the fact that we have the vaccine.”
Read more on MLive:
Michigan’s coronavirus numbers are rising, but will vaccinations blunt the impact?
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COVID-19 Pandemic Still Teaches Schools in Michigan a Year Later
9 things we did completely wrong about COVID-19 a year ago