It will take a long, seven years before the COVID-19 pandemic ends worldwide, if the distribution of vaccines continues at the current rate, according to a Bloomberg calculation.
The media, which said it had built up the “largest database” of COVID-19 vaccinations worldwide, slammed the numbers and found that it could take most of a decade to achieve herd immunity as a spread does not increase for two doses. vaccines.
Dr. Anthony Fauci said 70-85 percent of the population will need the vaccine to achieve herd immunity, and while the U.S. is on track to reach the target by the new year in 2022, it could take countries like Canada ten years take to their current pace.
Worldwide, more than 119 million doses have been administered, but Bloomberg’s tracker shows that some countries, mostly wealthy, Westerners achieve 75% faster coverage than others.
Israel, for example, is on track to see 75% coverage by spring, but it could take Portugal four years, China seven years and Latvia nearly nine years to achieve herd immunity if vaccine distribution does not change.
The calculations are, of course, ‘volatile’, Bloomberg explained, especially with a deployment that is only a few months old and is still interrupted with supply interruptions.
Canada’s vaccination rate has recently been halved after the country received shipping delays, but as long as their contracts to buy more doses per person than any other country go ahead, they will not be sitting in pandemic hell for a decade. .
The pace is expected to accelerate worldwide as more and more stab sites become available – they pointed to the key centers in vaccine manufacturing in India and Mexico, saying production has only just begun, and only a third of the countries started with vaccinations.
The Bloomberg calculator is based on two doses for complete vaccination and will be adjusted once the vaccine made by Johnson & Johnson, which requires only one dose, is available. Although the vaccinations were not approved for children, Bloomberg included children in their calculation because they could also infect and transmit the virus.
The calculator does not take into account any level of natural immunity experienced by those who have had the virus before. The CDC has said that some immunity is offered after an infection, but it is not clear how long it will last.
A study from Mount Sinai, published last week in preprint server MedRxiv, found that reinfection is ‘common’ among young people, especially those who had very mild cases or had no symptoms at all when they had the bug. not. The researchers involved called on governments to include young, previously infected people in the distribution of vaccines.
Another study published this week suggested that those who had the virus needed only one dose of the vaccine.