By 
Spencer Custodio |
Orange County, along with Southern California, will remain under the local coronavirus closure order as the area’s hospitalizations continue to skyrocket, making intensive care units in places like Los Angeles County scarce.
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“The order will remain because the forecasts do not show that San Joaquin Valley and Southern California have predicted ICU capacity of more than 15%, four weeks out,” said Secretary of State for Health and Human Services Dr. . Mark Ghaly, told Tuesday’s news conference.
The region’s ICU beds for coronavirus patients have been used up, he said.
It does not look like the situation will improve any time soon.
“We essentially plan that ICU capacity does not improve in Southern California,” Ghaly said. “And demand will still exceed capacity.”
OC hospitals continue to beat.
As of Tuesday, 2,106 people have been admitted to the hospital, including 473 in intensive care units.
The province is seeing its hospitalizations skyrocket at a rate never seen before – all ahead of a dreaded potential holiday, similar to what was seen after Thanksgiving.
A month ago, 648 people were hospitalized, with 158 in ICUs – an increase of 225%.
“We fully expect that it will worsen until the vaccine is honestly said and that people will really take masking and behavior seriously,” said Dr Shruti Gohil, a doctor on the infectious diseases treating patients in the country. intensive care unit at UC Irvine Medical Center in Orange.
Gohil said that winter could make the virus spread more easily because the aerosol particles of people on whom the virus moves would not disappear as quickly as during the summer months.
‘This is the right, natural time for distribution. So this is the perfect storm. We’re coming in with all this COVID, now the temperature has dropped, ‘Gohil said in a Monday telephone interview. “I see it getting worse until something happens.”
She said an effective roll-out of the vaccine, along with more people following public health guidelines, could turn the tide.
“This is not rocket science,” Gohil said. “The answers are clear.”
Although the region under the regional closure order for a month, many pubs and restaurants remained open because OC saw thousands of new cases of coronavirus daily.
Public health officials in Orange County and the sheriff of OC followed a practical approach to enforcement.
The order closed insignificant businesses such as nail salons, barber shops, gyms and outdoor restaurants. Although restaurants may take out and deliver, it is similar to the previous home order in March.
But unlike the March order, malls and other retailers remain open. Although the malls and retailers are supposed to limit the number of occupants to 20% of the building’s capacity, many stores do not.
Local and public health officials dealt with most cases at private gatherings.
But An LA Times analysis From the outbreak data released daily by LA County officials, there were 505 active outbreaks at retailers last week – more than double a month earlier.
Public health officials in Orange County are refusing to disclose the province’s outbreak data.
Sanghyuk Shin, UC Irvine epidemiologist, said public health departments across the country are underfunded to accurately contact trace virus cases to determine where many outbreaks began.
“I do not think we have seen very good data on the distribution of COVID 19 distributed here in the US,” Shin said in a Monday telephone interview. “So take contact detection and investigate these groups that occur, which can occur in a shopping center, in schools and at events – it takes a lot of work.”
Shin said there are so many cases that are not being investigated, and much of the current data does not sketch the whole picture.
‘I know people point to family gatherings and things like that. I’m a little skeptical about that, because the type of data presented is based only on the 10%, 20% of COVID-19 cases that are fully investigated. The vast majority of the COVID-19 cases, we do not know where people got them, ‘he said.
He also said that holiday parties and other private events can be more easily investigated because people know each other, as opposed to trying to find out who was exposed to an infected person in a busy shop.
Shin, other epidemiologists, public health experts and doctors interviewed by Voice or OC throughout the pandemic said masks, social distance, outdoor activities and strict disinfection routines all add different layers of protection.
But because the virus is so widespread, the various layers have become less effective – especially as people congregate in shopping malls, restaurants and other places.
The virus has now killed 1,847 people out of 152,059 confirmed cases, including 2,452 new cases reported Tuesday, according to the County Health Agency.
Public health officials estimate that about 12% of all new cases end up in hospitals within three weeks.
Orange County averaged about 3,000 new cases a day over the past week.
As experts estimate that about 12% of cases eventually require hospitalization, this means that more than 2,500 people could be admitted to hospital in the coming weeks as hospitals try to discharge stabilized patients as quickly as possible.
The virus has killed more than three times as many people as the flu each year.
In context, Orange County has averaged about 20,000 deaths a year since 2016, including 543 annual flu deaths, according to health information.
According to state death statistics, more than 4,600 people die from cancer, more than 2,800 people die from heart disease, more than 1,400 people die from Alzheimer’s disease and deaths from more than 1,300 people.
According to Orange County, Orange County has already exceeded its annual average of 20,000 deaths, with 21,110 people in November. latest available state data.
It is a difficult virus for the medical community to tackle because some people show no symptoms but can still spread it. Others feel slight symptoms, such as fatigue and mild fever. Others end up in ICUs for days and weeks before making it out, while others end up dying from the virus.
“We definitely know that hospitals in Southern California are in crisis,” Ghaly said.
He said that some hospitals in the region use a “crisis care technique”, when a hospital is so thin, that doctors may have to prioritize who is treated first. The crisis mode can also mean delayed care for some patients and longer ambulance waits.
While no hospital in Southern California is in ‘crisis care’ mode, Ghaly said he and other public health officials fear hospitals will have to ration treatment and supplies if the trends continue.
“You find yourself in situations where you have to take care of occasional rations, take care … not every patient gets the same attention we were hoping for,” Ghaly said, encouraging people to “do everything in our power to help us. avoid getting into the situation. ”
Here is the latest information on virus numbers in Orange County:
Infections | Hospitalizations and deaths | City-by-city data | Demographics
Spencer Custodio is a reporter for the Voice of OC staff. You can reach him at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @SpencerCustodio