With the deployment of the coronavirus vaccine alarmingly behind schedule in the United States and a more contagious strain of the disease now spreading in at least three states, epidemiologists are surprised by a new overseas strategy: delaying the second dose of the vaccine to get more people at least partially vaccinated faster.
Earlier this week, British officials announced that they would prefer to vaccinate more people over the administration of second shots three or four weeks later – which is a heated debate among U.S. health experts desperate for faster vaccinations amid a nationwide boom.
But a crazy patchwork of vaccine plans – not to mention scientific uncertainty about a delayed second dose – means such a shift is unlikely to take place in the US, epidemiologists say.
“I want everyone to get as many people vaccinated for community benefits as possible,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an expert in infectious diseases at UC San Francisco, said, where the chairman of medicine recently said. he supports a one-dose plan. But given how punctual and confusing the rollout was, he said, “it will never be possible in the US”
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are both administered in two doses, approximately three and four weeks, respectively. Although the vaccines are more than 90% effective with two doses, it is unclear exactly how delaying the second dose will affect the general population than recommended by the manufacturer.
British officials have made the compromise to ‘do so much good for so many people within the shortest possible time frame’ ‘, British medical officials wrote in a letter on Thursday, citing data showing that’ the vast majority of initial protection against clinical diseases. is after the first dose of vaccine. ”
Dr. Bob Wachter, Chair of the UCSF Division of Medicine, spoke in a series of tweets Thursday that the slow rollout and new viral variant ‘demands that we turbo-charge the process of at least partially protecting a large portion of the population’ with one shot – especially as Americans get tired of pandemic precautions.
“It seems increasingly clear that a strategy to get as many people (especially high risk) as possible to get their first shot as soon as possible will save many more lives than sticking to the two-shot plan,” he wrote. Wachter was not available Saturday.
At the national level, however, the idea has not yet gained much traction. Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, dr. Anthony Fauci, said earlier this week that the strategy was “being considered”, but made it clear on Friday that the US would not follow Britain’s lead.
Since states are largely responsible for their own vaccines after the federal government allocates the doses, they can theoretically make the move on their own. The California Department of Public Health said in a statement Saturday that the clinical trial results were “carefully reviewed” to weigh the potential benefit of vaccinating more people.
But Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, another UCSF epidemiologist, said California would be wise to stick to its current plan.
“While theoretically more people with immunity can get a single-dose strategy with a long delay, we run the risk of it creating more logistical barriers to moving without the benefit of gears,” Bibbins-Domingo said. “It’s hard to imagine that this is the right strategy.”
According to the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control, about 4.2 million people received the first dose of Pfizer or Moderna vaccine from Saturday – well below the 20 million that the US had planned by the beginning of the year.
The recovery from these delays became urgent again after a more contagious strain COVID-19 was discovered in three states, including California. Although there is no evidence that the tension is more deadly, scientists believe it is responsible for recent rises in England.
In California, the average of seven days since the beginning of December has more than doubled, surpassing 39,000 new daily infections. Intensive care in the hospital, meanwhile, remains at 0% in Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley and has dropped to just 5.1% in the Bay. Overall, the state recorded 53,341 new cases and 386 new deaths, most of which were in Southern California, where health experts saw signs of a boom after the holidays.
As their risk of infection seems higher than ever before, many anxious residents have recalibrated their expectations for when they can be vaccinated in the coming months.
Patricia Fuschetti, 78, of Oakland, traded information with friends from Boston and the Bay about their eligibility.
“Nobody knows, because there is no rhyme or reason for what is happening,” said the retired nurse, who wanted to see President-elect Joe Biden’s government get a nationalist response. “There is no centralized plan.”
According to her, the decision on one dose versus two doses seems to be another thing that local and state governments can dangle without clear instructions from the federal government.
“Think of the New Deal,” Fuschetti said. ‘Think about what works in history and what needs to happen fast.”
Stuart Rojstaczer, 64, a writer living in Palo Alto, has been in contact with Israeli family members who have already received their first doses. He had hoped the vaccine would enable him to see his daughter on the East Coast this spring – and even attend a May wedding in Israel – but all that now seems unrealistic.
“We’re doing something wrong,” he said. “It’s going to take a little longer before I see people I love.”
CNN and the Los Angeles Times contributed.