On nuclear ojivas and global tensions: why is the renovation of the Nuwe START treaty between the United States and Russia

The President of the United States, Joe Biden (REUTERS / Tom Brenner)
The President of the United States, Joe Biden (REUTERS / Tom Brenner)

The treatment of arms control nuclei Nuwe BEGIN, the ultimate in regular United States and Russia arsenals that quedaba, tenia that expires these fires, giving life free for a quality armamentary career in the context of peers relations between Washington and Moscow in decades.

Prohibition of probation, last minute President Joe Biden’s Governor Announces January 26 His Renovations for Five Years, lie of the previous administration of Donald Trump, the one derroto in the November 3 elections, insists during years in his voluntary de darlo de baja sin un acuerdo reemplazante.

Some days before the announcement of Biden, the governor of Russian President Vladimir Putin had also expressed his intentions to renovate the treaty that he had not been able to negotiate with the former owner in Casa Blanca.

“The notice of the renovation of the agreement traio alivio to the presidents of both countries, as well as the experts in the control of the armed forces, diplomats and politicians in gangs ”, signal Andrey Baklitskiy, researcher at the think tank estadounidense Carnegie Endowment For International Peace, in a recent article.

El entonces predidente estadounidense Donald Trump is directly to Vladimir Putin (REUTERS / Kevin Lamarque / File Photo)
El entonces predidente estadounidense Donald Trump is directly to Vladimir Putin (REUTERS / Kevin Lamarque / File Photo)

“But even though the extension for five years is a good news, the excitement that will dominate the state of bilateral relations between the United States and Russia and the control of arms in general”, Agregó.

Historical rivals, the relationship between the United States and Russia have been large-scale in recent decades, especially during Putin’s third term and quarter and in Obama’s last years during the Trump administration. More recently, Moscow’s alleged failure in the 2016 presidential election, a series of large-scale cyberattacks against state infrastructure, persistent information campaigns in the Kremlin, the strategic differences in the referendum on the Civil War in Syria (where both potential defenders and oppressive gangs) and the intention of the leader of the Russian opposition Alexei Navalny hy sido important factors of tension.

Baklitskiy, who works at the Carnegie Endowment mosque, considers that the renovation should be “routine”, but that this change is debated and that the Trump administration intends to use the treaty to log Russia’s concessions in other areas and including ‘n China, eis as’ n las que ambos países se negaron.

From the NGO’s director, the Washington Nuclear Threat Initiative, Ernest J. Moniz, granted the announcement of the renovation and un comunicado: “It extends the limits of Russia’s nuclear arm systems and inspection regimes. It will ensure that Russia’s most powerful armies – the strategic ones, including the avant-garde missile and the ICBM Sarmat – will be affected by the treaty ”.

Intercontinental ballistic missiles in a test drive of the Vladimir Monomakh nuclear submarine in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk, Russia, September 12, 2020 (Russia / AP Defense Ministry)
Intercontinental ballistic missiles at a test of the nuclear submarine Vladimir Monomakh in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk, Russia, September 12, 2020 (Ministry of Defense of Russia / AP)

“United States and Russia have one responsibility and obligation to work together to reduce its arsenals and prevent nuclear war“, Aggregate the expert and ex-assessor of the United States governor during Barack Obama’s governor.

The nuclear power plant control plants

The First Strategic Arms Reduction Agreement (o Start) was established in 1991 by the United States and the Soviet Union, through a series of actions between superpotentials and the objective of voluntarily limiting the strategic nuclear arsenals by means of a bilateral agreement and a decade of latent tensions and the constant establishment of a nuclear war, as watered down to what happened in 1963 and during the crisis called the Crisis of the Missiles.

Entered into force in 1994 and regulates in large part the relations between Washington and Moscow (now in front of the Russian Federation), has expired in 2009, partially replaced by the Treaty of Strategic Offensive Reductions (SORT).

The Sarmat SS-18 intercontinental ballistic missile
The intercontinental ballistic missile Ruso Sarmat SS-18

The New START was launched in 2010, entering into force one year later, and was scheduled to expire on February 5, 2021, until the parties announced their extensions for another five years. Back to quedaron el Treated on Nuclear Forces by Rango Intermedio (INF) and the Cielos Abiertos, of the numbers the Trump governor retires in 2019 and 2020, respectively, and the Treated on Anti-Ballistic Missiles (ABM), from George W. Bush’s return in 2002, from Nuwe START as the ultimate in legal armament control architecture between both countries.

In the case of the treaties that the United States abandoned during the Trump administration, it is argued at the moment that, in the first place, Russia violated part of the agreements (Moscow barred and accused in exchange for Washington) and, secondly , which is not contemplative in China, potential emerging in the nuclear area (Beijing rejects the idea alleging that its relatively small arsenal of 320 ojivas in the United States is part of a tripartite agreement).

Evgeny Buzhinsky, Investigator and Vice President of Concejo Ruso de Asuntos Internacionales (RIAC), un think scrum Russia’s governing body, considering that “it is widely accepted that the Armed Forces’ control architecture developed in the final of the Guerra Fría is inadequate in the world’s high multiplier, due to the complexity of the tarea (sums up the complaint, the suspects and other factors) he submitted his update ”.

Prohibition of probes, the dismantling of the arm control system, if it is considered antiquated, can lead to a multilateral arm career that includes arms of all types, ciberataques and laser arms, among other systems”, Aggregate in a published article this week.

The launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile LGM-30 Minuteman III, part of the stadium arsenal
The launch of a test of an intercontinental ballistic missile LGM-30 Minuteman III, part of the stadium arsenal

The New START bilateral is based on two pillars: it sets limits on the number of nuclei displayed and its launch media, and implements control mechanisms to build trust between both parties.

Among these mechanisms figure the need to make notifications about locations, movements and dispositions of strategic nuclear weapons; the possibility of carrying out 18 in-situ inspections per year; and the annual exchange of information on trial launches.

In tanto the limit is currently found in 1,550 displayed displays (es decir, lists to be used, and no almanacs and disarmed), 800 launch vehicles (ballistic missiles launched from tierra and submarines, and bombers) deployed and unmanned, and 700 unloaded launch vehicles. These limits will be reviewed in February 2018.

The number of nucleus arms has a long process of deciding the distance from which it can launch, but it is a notably minor number in comparison to the arsenals in times of the Guerra Fría. During this period, the United States read more than 31,000 ojivas at its peak in 1966 and the Soviet Union 45,000 in 1986, according to data collected by Robert S. Norris and Hans M. Kristensen in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists academic publication .

On top of that, the current nuclear weapons are in disarray, especially the intercontinental ballistic missiles equipped with multiple MIRV regenerative vehicles (it is said that many variants occur in the missile missile, the targets are different are much more capable than the three or four decades behind and it may well be that reducing arsenals is part of an intention to increase efficiency without losing efficiency.

The nuclear missile in the middle of Pershing II, which was withdrawn from service in the trademark INF
The nuclear missile in the middle of Pershing II, which was withdrawn from service in the trademark INF

“They produce, the career of arms will be more qualitative than quantitative ”, consider, al respecto, Buzhinsky.

Sondeverbod, the progressive reduction in the number of armed forces completes a clear function in nuclear proliferation al reduces the chance of errors and la cadena de lanzamiento, and to disentangle the accumulation of ojivas in the context of an armamentaristic career. Considering the criticisms of Nuwe START and the compliments on the part of the countries, tener acuerdo vigente es mejor que no tener ninguno, consider, Irma Argüello, president of the think tank argentino NPS Global.

“It is important to expand new ones. It is the only bilateral treaty between the two powers that have provided (which sums up 90% of the arms) and this treaty has been more effective than the NPT in controlling arms, which has been compromised ”. aggregate the expert in dialogue with Infobae and in relation to the Treaty on Nuclear Proliferation (NPT), the international acceptance of its adoption in 1970 through limited scope.

“It is a very positive gesture that is present and immense, because the New START has had the potential to be free to develop new armies and ojivas. In addition, the renovation of the New START will have a positive effect at the NPT Review Conference ”which was canceled due to the pandemic in 2020 and will be realized this year, he concluded.

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