Photographer: Jonathan Nackstarnd / AFP / Getty Images
Photographer: Jonathan Nackstarnd / AFP / Getty Images
After Sweden probably used the mildest approach to the coronavirus pandemic, Sweden tightened the screws.
From Sunday, the government of Prime Minister Stefan Lofven can restrict businesses that do not meet the restrictions such as restricting visitors, as well as private gatherings, under a new law that runs until September. It relies mainly on recommendations and trusts people to follow them. With the increasing coercion of the health care system and increasing deaths, some say it was too little too late.
‘Like many places in Sweden learned it about the virus the hard way, ”said William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s School of Public Health in Boston, who followed the country’s strategy closely. “Sweden was too slow. From the spring, in Sweden and elsewhere, there was sufficient evidence of what could be expected in the autumn and winter if the policy is not changed and these are the consequences. ”
While Sweden has pursued its unusual strategy, it doubts the decisions of other countries to close. The road to mandatory restrictions has left the Nordic country with more than three times more virus deaths per capita than Denmark, the closest regional partner in terms of deaths. Confidence in the government has waned and worsened by top officials – including Lofven himself – insulting their own rules. Even King Carl XVI Gustaf calls the reaction of the country a failure.
As in the rest of the world, the debate in the pandemic era has focused on balancing people’s health against the consequences of shutting down economies. Sweden’s economy has fared better than most, with deaths now exceeding 9600.
Nordic outlier
Sweden’s Covid-19 mortality rate is highest in the North
Source: Johns Hopkins University
Top epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, who in June described countries that decided to opt for a strict lock-in in June as’crazy, ”said the pandemic law should not be seen as a twist, but rather as an extension of what has already been done.
“We are still working primarily with voluntary measures for individuals,” he said in an interview. “And we work mainly with the regulation of different kinds of agencies, but different kinds of shops are needed to comply with regulations for their duties.”
One of Tegnell’s biggest drawbacks, Professor Bjorn Olsen of Uppsala University, said ‘reality has caught up with the public health agency.’
“They were very stubborn to stick to the strategy without listening or doing any external analysis,” he said.
Anders Litzen lost his 71-year-old mother Agnetha in the spring and put her last 16 hours in full protective gear by her side. The 42-year-old, who lost his job due to the pandemic and started working as a runner in a hospital, said the government’s communication was too vague.
” My mother, and I think most Swedes, did not take it really seriously, ” Litzen said. “I can not say that what Sweden has done is right or wrong, but from a personal perspective I have to think that it must be strong and clear if you want to send a message.”
Praise and health officials, who face early criticism including from President Donald Trump, acknowledged in April that the country had failed to protect its elderly in nursing homes. A commission appointed by the government recently came to a similar conclusion.
Sweden has made “good decisions” in the direction of tougher measures, Mike Ryan, head of the World Health Organization’s emergency program, told reporters on Monday.
“This is an example of how difficult it is to maintain public health and social measures, which is simply determined by the individual’s willingness or determination to carry out those measures,” Ryan said. “It tells us somehow that the environment at the beginning of 2021 is how difficult, how challenging.”
Health versus economy
The largest region of the Nordic region withstood the crisis better than most Western countries, with its factories less affected by disruptions in the latter part of 2020.
According to BEE AB’s chief economist, Robert Bergqvist, the differences in the closure strategies between the Nordic and Baltic countries have been offset by their general dependence on manufacturing. “As we sum up 2020, the industry has helped us withstand some of the downturn in many other countries.”
Refusal after holiday
Economic activity partially recovered in early January
Source: Bloomberg Economics, Google, Moovitapp.com, German Statistics Office, BloombergNEF, Indeed.com, Shoppertrak.com, Opportunity Insights
The low debt levels have also enabled Sweden to release fiscal stimulus, supported by the Riksbank’s asset purchase program. While the pandemic law may require additional stimulus measures, “Sweden will still have very strong central government finances in an international perspective,” Danske Bank said in its Nordic Outlook last week.
Leadership void
Premier Lofven saw the confidence of voters erode as criticism of the government’s response increased. It did not help that he was spotted among Christmas conciliators in a shopping mall, his finance minister was caught renting skis at a resort and the top official of the corona virus response team undertook a Christmas trip to the Canary Islands . against official guidelines. And the opposition is not beating.
“The transmission of infections will not be stopped by a serious tone during a press conference,” Ulf Kristersson, chief opposition leader, said at a national security conference on Monday, in which he criticized the government for its lack of leadership, poor preparation and ambiguity. division of responsibilities. ‘
Support for the Social Democrats fell by 2 percentage points to 23%, while Kristersson’s Moderate Party had a lead of 23.2% of voters to become the largest party in Sweden in the latest Aftonbladet / Demoskop poll . There is no imminent threat to Lofven’s work, given the political system.
The recent response was a “partial reversal” that lacks what is needed, such as imposing masks and closing more schools, Olsen of Uppsala University said. Primary schools remain open.
“Now we have to be very busy vaccinating, but a lot of effort is being put into just keeping the lid of the transmission so that it does not boil over,” Olsen said. ‘These are constantly half-hearted, lame attempts. What many other countries would have done in this situation would be to close down completely. ”
Sweden vaccinated at least 80,000 people by January 10, or 0.8% of its population, health officials said Tuesday. This is less than 2% of Denmark, based on the Bloomberg Covid-19 vaccine detection.
“At this stage of the crisis, I think it’s less about the closure strategy and more about the vaccination strategy,” said Bergqvist of BEE.
Litzen, who decided to help with the pandemic battle after losing his mother, says stricter restrictions should have taken the place of voluntary recommendations sooner. “In terms of recommended regulations, it’s very naive to think that an entire country can follow unless you make it some kind of law.”
– With help from Corinne Gretler and Nick Rigillo
(Updates with the latest poll in the 20th paragraph.)