SALT LAKE CITY – Public health experts say they remain cautiously optimistic about the COVID-19 pandemic outlook as the number of new cases declines and the number of Utahns vaccinated increases sharply.
Friday was the first time there have been fewer than 15,000 active COVID-19 cases in Utah since September 24, 2020, according to the Utah Department of Health. This is a figure that at one point reached more than 63,000 at the end of November.
The state’s seven-day moving average of ‘person-over-person’ positivity rate fell below 10% on 26 February for the first time since 7 September 2020. Utah’s rolling average of seven days was 543 new cases per day on Friday. which was the lowest since September 14, 2020. All of this data shows that Utah, about where it was before the fallout, led to the highest COVID-19 rate the state has ever received.
Meanwhile, the vaccinations are increasing. The health department now reports that 529,871 Utahns have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, meaning the number of Utahns vaccinated since December 15, 2020, is now nearly 1.5 times the number of people who have contracted. COVID-19 since a year ago Saturday.
But while some states have used the vaccine, declining their own case or national decline as a reason to ease restrictions, a Utah health expert said Friday it is still too early to do so.
Brandon Webb, an infectious disease physician at Intermountain Healthcare, estimates that Utah has about 30% immunity when vaccinations are given or recent cases are considered. This is a figure he says is ‘great’, he says, but the estimate is still not the 70% or more that experts say should be achieved to achieve herd immunity.
“We are not there at the moment,” Webb said during a question-and-answer session with members of the media on Friday. “We are not at a point where we can only rely on the 30% herd immunity, so it is important that we continue to follow the social restrictions and precautions imposed by the Department of Health.”
This is why Webb warned that they would weaken restrictions too early or celebrate too soon, especially since some states, such as Texas, announced these plans this week.
Government Spencer Cox said Thursday that Utah will continue to pursue its plan to reopen in various steps, even amid pressure from politicians inside and outside Utah to reopen “100%” increases.
There is hope at hand – we can see the finish line, but at the moment the last thing we can afford is to fiddle with the ball before we cross the goal line.
-Dr. Brandon Webb, Infectious Diseases Physician at Intermountain Healthcare
Former Gov. Gary Herbert has used a sports cliché for months during his coronavirus press conference. With every positive step Utah took last year, he pointed out that leaders and health experts were unwilling to ‘raise football’. Simply put, it was too early to celebrate because there was still work to be done to leave the pandemic.
With the case of COVID-19 cases and vaccinations available, Webb presented a similar sports analogy on Friday.
“We have to work it through to the end. There is hope on the horizon – we can see the finish line, but at the moment the last thing we can afford is to fiddle with the ball before we cross the goal line,” he said. said. said. “If we think about it in terms of strong finishes and individuals making personal decisions based on their individual level of risk, we will be able to reach that finish line while still accelerating the spread of vaccinations.”
Part of the reason why experts remain cautiously optimistic is that the decline in the new number of reported cases is starting to flatten, indicating a possible plateau in new cases instead of disappearing altogether.
At the same time, Webb pointed out that vaccination efforts around the world are in a “race against” the various coronavirus variants that can hinder the entire vaccination process.
So, how should Utah reopen?
The ‘wisest way of action’
Utah leaders on Thursday shifted Salt Lake and Davis counties into the “moderate” transmission rate level of the state’s transmission index. They join Box Elder, Cache, Duchesne, Grand, Juab, Morgan, San Juan, Sanpete, Wasatch, Washington and Weber in the category.
Only five counties – Daggett, Millard, Piute, Rich and Wayne – are in the ‘low’ transmission rate. The remaining 11 provinces remain in the ‘high’ transmission category. These are Beaver, Carbon, Emery, Garfield, Iron, Kane, Savier, Summit, Tooele, Uintah, and Utah counties.
Webb calls the differentiated approach to the state of reopening from COVID-19 “the wisest course of action.”
“As fewer and fewer people in the community become susceptible, we can increasingly loosen restrictions,” he said. “All of these incremental steps to weaken restrictions need to be linked to how many individuals in our community have immunity.”
Therefore, he encourages people to wear masks, practice social distance when needed, and avoid ‘poorly ventilated areas’. All of these can help reduce the spread of the virus.
While some communities have relaxed restrictions, Webb has encouraged people to remain careful and follow guidelines to reduce the spread of the coronavirus, even if it has been removed. He added that vaccines are extremely useful, but indicates that more people should get them.
“Not everyone should view the vaccine as a ticket to full freedom, while we still have a fairly high distribution of community,” he said. “Not everyone has been vaccinated.”
Add a new vaccine to the mixture
Utahns began receiving the one-vaccine Johnson & Johnson vaccine this week. Webb said he has read the entire 80-page report on the vaccine collected from clinical trials and believes the vaccine is ‘very beneficial’.
“The safety data are excellent,” he added, noting that serious side effects of the vaccine were ‘very uncommon’.
Utah State Epidemiologist Angela Dunn said Thursday one of the most common questions the Department of Health has been asked is which of the three vaccination options they should get. She advised that it is the best way to use any vaccines.
“The best vaccine for you is the one you can get first, regardless of the manufacturer,” she said.
Intermountain officials have pointed out that this is the case for all but 16- or 17-year-olds, as the Pfizer vaccine is the only one approved so far for individuals.
Most vaccines given so far are by Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech, which require two doses. Although both are considered approximately 95% effective after the second dose, it is possible that someone may test positive for COVID-19 after receiving the primary dose of any vaccine.
In that case, Webb said the symptoms are typically milder. He added that it is now recommended that anyone taking COVID-19 after receiving the first dose of one of the vaccines should still receive the second dose after their case has been resolved and that they have waited longer than the isolation period of ten days .
“It is safe and appropriate to use the second dose,” he said.
Utah’s Prospects for 6 Months
It’s been almost six months since the fall in Utah began. Now that Utah was near the end of last summer, what will the next six months look like?
Available vaccines are the biggest difference between September 2020 and March 2021. This is what Webb called the ‘most important tool at the moment’.
According to him, the current trends are also ‘favorable’ that restrictions, such as mask mandates, can be lifted over the next six months. For this to happen, however, Utahns will still need to follow guidelines to slow down the spread of the coronavirus.
“We have to stay on track and go to the finish line by following the social restrictions and the other layers of protection until our case counts and the number of vaccinations is at a point where we can pass the baton safely of the things we are all tired of. is up to immunity, ‘he said. “We are currently on track with the current distribution of vaccines to increasingly loosen restrictions during spring and summer.”